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MLB PicksMon 8:00 PM ET
New York Yankees logo
New York
Yankees
C. Schlittler RHP
versus
Tampa Bay Rays logo
Tampa Bay
Rays
F. Peralta RHP
MLB · NYY at TB

Your Picks on Yankees vs Rays

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New York vs Tampa Bay consensus picks

NYY67%
33%TB
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Moneyline

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Predictions Today: Cam Schlittler vs Freddy Peralta

Game time: October 5, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET

Venue: Tropicana Field — St. Petersburg, Florida

Article updated Oct 4, 11:20 PM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

The New York Yankees are projected to beat the Tampa Bay Rays, Yankees 3, Rays 2, in ALDS Game 2 on October 5. Cam Schlittler’s stronger season and scoreless Wild Card outing give New York the starting-pitching edge. The supplied prices offer no compelling wager, however, with Freddy Peralta’s recent performance and the Yankees’ quiet Game 1 keeping this a low-confidence forecast.

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays prediction and best bet

New York is the pick to even the series behind Schlittler. His full-season advantage over Peralta supplies the strongest reason to favor the Yankees, and his September postseason performance reinforces it. The forecast is Yankees 3, Rays 2.

The official betting recommendation is Pass. Picking New York to win is a smaller commitment than expecting a two-run victory at Yankees -1.5 (+150). A low-scoring projection also needs more than two encouraging starts to make Under 6.5 (-105) an attractive wager. Neither market offers a sufficiently convincing edge here.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Game time: Monday, October 5, 2026, at 8:00 p.m. EDT, for Game 2 of the MLB American League Division Series.

Venue: Tropicana Field.

Broadcast: TBS/HBO Max, TruTV and Univision/TUDN.

Series position: Tampa Bay leads 1-0 following its October 3 victory.

Probable starters: New York right-hander Cam Schlittler and Tampa Bay right-hander Freddy Peralta.

SportsJaw moneyline: Yankees -122; Rays +110. Run line: Yankees -1.5 (+150); Rays +1.5 (-170). Total: Over 6.5 (-115); Under 6.5 (-105).

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New York Yankees outlook

Schlittler finished the 2026 regular season 14-6 with a 1.95 ERA and 239 strikeouts. That combination makes him the central reason for the Yankees pick: the case rests on a season of strong pitching, rather than simply expecting New York to rebound from a loss.

On September 29 against Boston in the Wild Card round, he delivered 6 1/3 scoreless innings, allowing two hits and striking out 10. He also went 1-1 with a 2.81 ERA across three regular-season starts against Tampa Bay. Those three outings offer useful opponent-specific context, although they remain a much smaller sample than his season.

The offensive concern is immediate. New York collected only one hit and struck out 12 times in its 1-0 Game 1 defeat. One game should not define the lineup, but it makes a comfortable winning margin a difficult assumption.

Tampa Bay Rays outlook

Peralta’s regular-season numbers were less imposing: a 10-11 record, 4.42 ERA and 156 strikeouts. On that comparison, Tampa Bay enters with the weaker starting-pitching profile. His recent work nevertheless supplies a credible reason to expect a competitive game.

In his September 25 start at Philadelphia, Peralta allowed four hits over 5 1/3 scoreless innings in a 2-0 Rays victory. That outing is a meaningful counterweight to his season ERA, though one scoreless appearance cannot carry the same weight as a full season.

Peralta is 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA in two career starts against the Yankees. The limited history warrants little emphasis. Tampa Bay’s more persuasive route to another victory is a repeat of his recent run prevention, keeping New York within reach instead of requiring the Rays to win a high-scoring contest.

Key matchup factors

The central tension is season-long pitching quality against immediate offensive uncertainty. Schlittler gives New York the stronger foundation, but that advantage still needs run support. Tampa Bay’s opener demonstrated how little separation there can be when the Yankees fail to generate offense.

At the October 5, 03:04 UTC update, SportsJaw’s blended moneyline consensus favored Yankees -122 at 73%. SportsJaw members and qualified handicappers separately favored Rays +110 at 56% each. Those are different groups and measures, not estimates of either team’s chance of winning.

The total is similarly divided. The blended consensus favored Under 6.5 (-105) at 63%, while members and qualified handicappers each favored Over 6.5 (-115) at 71%. That disagreement tempers the betting case; it does not erase the starting-pitching reason for forecasting a tight game.

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays spread prediction

Spread recommendation: Pass on Yankees -1.5 (+150) and Rays +1.5 (-170).

A projected one-run New York victory falls short of the Yankees’ required margin. Their stronger starter alone is not enough to justify laying 1.5 runs after the offense struggled in the opener.

Tampa Bay +1.5 matches the projected margin, but its -170 price requires a stronger conviction about a close finish than this matchup warrants. An exact-score forecast is an estimate, not a reliable measure of cover probability.

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays total prediction

Total recommendation: Pass on Over 6.5 (-115) and Under 6.5 (-105).

The forecast leans toward a low total because Schlittler has the stronger season profile and both starters delivered scoreless outings in their cited recent appearances. Yet Peralta’s 4.42 season ERA remains a substantial caution against treating another shutdown performance as the expectation.

Five projected runs put the score below 6.5, but the margin is sensitive to one productive inning. With the consensus groups divided and no supported offensive splits to sharpen the assessment, the Under stays a forecast direction rather than an official wager.

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays projected score

Game forecast: Yankees 3, Rays 2. Schlittler’s season and Wild Card outing give New York the edge. The strongest counterargument is that Peralta can keep the game close while the Yankees struggle to produce enough offense again.

Confidence is low. The starting-pitching comparison favors New York, but the projected margin is narrow and the offensive case is uncertain. The single official SportsJaw betting lean is Pass.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

NYY3

TB2

Projected winner New York YankeesConfidenceSlight Lean — Tampa Bay Rays
Pick on the Spread

Slight Lean — Tampa Bay Rays +1.5

Editorial pick at publication: Pass on Yankees -1.5 (+150) and Rays +1.5 (-170).

Pick on the Total

Slight Lean — Under 6.5

Editorial pick at publication: Pass on Over 6.5 (-115) and Under 6.5 (-105).

Sources

  • MLB.comYankees Probable Pitchers
  • CBS SportsYankees turn to Cam Schlittler to even ALDS against Rays

SportsJaw Yankees vs Rays game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Yankees vs Rays matchups or learn how our predictions work.

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