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  1. Home
  2. MLB Picks
  3. New York Yankees vs New York Mets
Fri 3:10 PM ET
New York Yankees logo
New York
Yankees5
M. Stroman RHP
versus
New York Mets logo
New York
Mets6
J. Hagenman RHP
Final
Team123456789T
New York Yankees2001200005
New York Mets20100120—

New York Yankees vs New York Mets Betting Picks & Predictions

Game time: July 4, 2025 at 3:10 PM ET

Venue: Citi Field — Queens, New York

Article updated Jul 4, 2:14 PM EDT

Published by SportsJaw Editorial Team

The New York Yankees and the New York Mets are set to face off in a Fourth of July ballgame, with both teams aiming to improve on their impressive seasons. The Yankees, with

Game outlook

The New York Yankees and the New York Mets are set to face off in a Fourth of July ballgame, with both teams aiming to improve on their impressive seasons. The Yankees, with a record of 93-68, are near the top of the American League East Division but have recently lost four games in a row. The Mets, with a record of 50-38, have fallen into second place in the National League East Division after only securing three wins in their last 10 games. Marcus Stroman will be the starting pitcher for the Yankees, while Justin Hagenman will be starting for the Mets. New York is the betting favorite, opening at -113 and currently sitting at New York -129. For more winning picks this baseball season, check out our Free MLB Picks.

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Yankees +114 | Mets -129

Spread: Yankees +1.5 (-175) | Mets -1.5 (+153)

Total: Over/Under 9.5 (-110)

Based on the moneyline, the implied probability that New York will win straight-up is 56%.

New York Yankees

The New York Yankees have been experiencing struggles with their rotation, particularly with Marcus Stroman having a rough start to the season. Stroman has allowed 13 runs in 14.1 innings pitched with expected opponent batting averages and slugging percentages higher than average. Despite these challenges, the lineup has been performing well, scoring an average of 5.12 runs per game. Players like Aaron Judge and Jazz Chisholm Jr. have been standouts, but the rest of the lineup has also stepped up. The Yankees have a power ranking of 14, ranking 4th in offense and 8th in defense, with a season record of 93-68. Overall, the team has shown resilience at the plate despite pitching struggles.

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MLB · New York Yankees at New York Mets

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New York Mets Analysis

The New York Mets are currently experiencing a successful season, but they are looking to bounce back from a recent rough stretch. Paul Blackburn is set to start the upcoming game and hopes to improve upon a challenging season where he has allowed 17 runs in 18.2 innings pitched. Opponents have had success against Blackburn with a .288 expected opponent Batting Average, a .469 expected opponent Slugging Percentage, and a 5.24 expected ERA. Despite Blackburn's struggles, the Mets lineup has been strong, scoring an average of 4.33 runs per game. Key players like Pete Alonso, Juan Soto, Jeff McNeil, Francisco Lindor, and Brandon Nimmo have contributed significantly to the team's offensive success. The Mets currently have a power ranking of 28 and rank #15 for offense, #7 for defense, and have an overall record of 74-88. In their last three matchups, the Mets went 1-2 against New York.

Intriguing New York Showdown: Mets Poised to Take on Yankees in Highly-Anticipated Matchup

The upcoming matchup between the New York Yankees and the New York Mets is anticipated to be a highly competitive game between two top-performing teams in the majors. The Mets, who are having a successful season, are expected to maintain their momentum at home and secure a victory. Key players such as Pete Alonso and Juan Soto are likely to contribute significantly to the team's offensive efforts against Marcus Stroman of the Yankees, who has struggled in recent outings. Additionally, solid pitching by Paul Blackburn for the Mets should effectively contain the Yankees' lineup, potentially leading to a favorable outcome. It is advisable to consider taking the Mets money line as home favorites in this game.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

Unavailable for this preview

Projected winnerUnavailableConfidencelow
Pick on the Spread

Published pick: Unavailable

Pick on the Total

Published pick: Unavailable

#NewYorkYankees#NewYorkMets

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Written by

SportsJaw Editorial Team

SportsJaw published this archived preview from its original game-day article. Its prediction and quoted lines are preserved as written.

About our editorial process

SportsJaw Yankees vs Mets archived game preview contains historical odds and availability that may no longer be current. View history of past Yankees vs Mets matchups or learn how our predictions work.

Current matchup data

Lines, trends and availability

Line movement since open

  • Moneyline · New York Yankees-106 → -104Moved
  • Moneyline · New York Mets-113 → -112Moved
  • Spread · New York Yankees-1.5 (+144) → +1.5 (-192)Moved
  • Spread · New York Mets+1.5 (-169) → -1.5 (+165)Moved
  • Total · Over9 (-110) → 9.5 (-110)Moved
  • Total · Under9 (-110) → 9.5 (-110)Moved

ATS and O/U trends

New York Yankees
93-68 matchup record · 3-7-0 ATS · 5-5-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file
New York Mets
74-88 matchup record · 4-6-0 ATS · 7-3-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file

Injuries and availability

From the published research (2025-07-04T18:14:12.356Z). Availability may have changed; review the cited sources.

No verified injury or availability note was included in the published matchup research.

Recent head-to-head

No completed head-to-head result is available in the current history window.

Final result

Matchup pick recap

New York Mets defeated New York Yankees 6-5

New York Mets defeated New York Yankees 6-5 on July 4, 2025, a 1-run decision in the series. New York Mets' strongest period was the 7th inning, when it outscored its opponent 2-0. Against SportsJaw's recorded New York Yankees +1.5 (-192) spread, New York Yankees covered, while the 11 combined runs finished over the recorded total of 9.5.

SportsJaw editorial picks

  • Projected winnerNo published selectionUnavailable

Tipster picks

  • CoolioMoneyline · New York Yankees +114Loss
  • CoolioTotal · Under 9.5 (-110)Loss
  • OddssharkMoneyline · New York Yankees +114Loss