Baltimore Orioles vs New York Mets Betting Picks & Predictions
Shane Baz has the stronger season and recent ERA numbers, while New York holds the better record over its last 10 games.
Matchup and prices
The Baltimore Orioles visit the New York Mets at Citi Field on September 15, 2026, for a 7:10 PM EDT MLB game. MLB.com lists right-hander Shane Baz and left-hander Sean Manaea as the probable starters.
Baltimore is +110 on the moneyline, with New York -130. The Orioles' run line is +1.5 (-193), and the Mets' is -1.5 (+159). The total is 8, with over 8 (-110) and under 8 (-110).
Starting pitching favors a slight Baltimore lean
Baz enters with a 6-15 record, 4.05 ERA and 150 strikeouts. Manaea is 5-7 with a 4.79 ERA and 126 strikeouts. Those season ERA figures give Baltimore a starting point for consideration, though they do not establish either team's chance of winning.
Covers reports a 4.25 ERA for Baz over his last five starts, compared with Manaea's 7.22. Both averaged 5.2 innings per start. Baz also averaged more strikeouts, 5.6 to 4.0, but Manaea allowed fewer walks, averaging 1.2 against Baz's 2.2.
Prediction and betting lean
Recent team results provide a counterweight: New York is 6-4 over its previous 10 games, while Baltimore is 4-6. The Orioles won the September 14 opener 2-1, but that score provides little basis for projecting this game's total.
Baltimore Orioles moneyline +112 is a slight lean based on the starting-pitching comparison. The conflicting team form and limited matchup evidence keep confidence low. Projected score: Orioles 4, Mets 3. That projection is a tentative estimate, not a separate under recommendation.