MLB · NYY at ARI
Picks close 15 minutes before game time (ET)Your Picks on Yankees vs Diamondbacks
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Warren's season numbers favor New York, but Arizona's bullpen and Judge's injury make this a low-confidence moneyline pick.
The New York Yankees visit the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field on Sunday, September 20, for a 2026 MLB matchup. MLB.com lists right-handers Will Warren and Corbin Burnes as the probable starters. New York is priced at -114 on the moneyline, with Arizona at -106.
Warren brings a 3.89 season ERA and 147 strikeouts. His September 14 start at Minnesota offers a useful example of his recent work: 5 2/3 innings, five hits, two walks and six strikeouts. He allowed two runs, neither earned. That distinction matters when assessing how effectively he kept Minnesota off the scoreboard.
Burnes allowed five earned runs and two home runs in 4 2/3 innings against Miami on September 14. However, his September 8 outing against Kansas City produced three scoreless innings with two hits, two walks and two strikeouts. Those contrasting results provide limited grounds for predicting how he will perform Sunday.
New York's broader run prevention supports the pick: 3.69 runs allowed per game against Arizona's 4.45. The bullpen comparison is closer. The Yankees have a 2.92 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, while the Diamondbacks have a 3.06 ERA and the lower WHIP at 1.06. Those season figures do not establish which relievers will be available.
New York won the September 18 opener 9-2. Field Level Media's subsequent report said Aaron Judge was absent and expected to go on the injured list with a right calf strain. That offensive concern limits confidence in backing the visitors.
The total is 8.5, with over 8.5 (-105) and under 8.5 (-115). A projected 5-3 Yankees win falls below that number, but the projection alone does not justify an under wager. Burnes' uneven recent results add scoring uncertainty.
The selection is New York Yankees moneyline (-114), with low confidence. Warren's season performance and New York's run prevention support a narrow lean, rather than a strong betting edge.
Projected score: Yankees 5, Diamondbacks 3. Betting lean: New York Yankees moneyline (-114).