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NBA PicksWed 8:00 PM ET
Indiana Pacers logo
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New Orleans
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NBA · Indiana Pacers at New Orleans Pelicans

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Indiana vs New Orleans consensus picks

Indiana Pacers62%
38%New Orleans Pelicans
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Indiana Pacers vs New Orleans Pelicans Predictions Today

Game time: October 21, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET

Venue: Smoothie King Center — New Orleans, LA

Article updated Oct 21, 7:21 AM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

The Indiana Pacers are projected to beat the New Orleans Pelicans 120-117. Indiana's favorite status and support across the spread consensus provide the strongest reason for the pick, while three confirmed absences make the edge fragile. Neither Indiana -3.5 (-110) nor the total of 239.5 (-107) offers a convincing wager here. The official betting recommendation is Pass, with low confidence in the forecast.

Indiana Pacers vs New Orleans Pelicans prediction and best bet

Indiana is the pick to win, but the best betting decision is Pass. The Pacers' -140 moneyline and majority support across the spread consensus point toward a narrow road victory. Those signals carry less weight than a demonstrated matchup advantage, especially with Aaron Nesmith, T.J. McConnell and Johnny Furphy ruled out.

The projected three-point margin also falls short of Indiana's 3.5-point spread. That makes the distinction between picking a winner and placing a wager especially relevant. New Orleans gets the points, but the injury contrast alone is too thin a reason to make the Pelicans an official play.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Game: Indiana Pacers at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA, 2026-27 season.

Time: Wednesday, October 21, 2026, at 8:00 p.m. ET.

Venue: Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, Louisiana.

Broadcast: NBA League Pass is available out of market. Hoops Nightly lists DAZN-IND for Indiana and GCSEN/WVUE for New Orleans.

SportsJaw odds: Indiana Pacers -3.5 (-110); New Orleans Pelicans +3.5 (-110). Moneyline: Indiana Pacers -140; New Orleans Pelicans +120. Total: Over 239 (-110); Under 239 (-110).

21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Picks are opinions, not guarantees. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

Indiana Pacers outlook

Indiana's confirmed absences are the clearest personnel concern. The NBA's October 21 injury report, updated at 6:45 a.m. ET, lists Nesmith out with a left hamstring strain, McConnell out with a right hamstring strain and Furphy out following right ACL repair/surgery.

Losing those choices limits Indiana's backcourt and wing options, although the report does not quantify the effect on scoring or defense. Treating all three absences as equally damaging would overstate what their status tells us.

Braden Smith is doubtful for G League two-way status, while Kobe Brown and Jalen Slawson are probable for G League two-way status. Those designations are separate from the three confirmed injury absences and should not be described as additional injuries.

New Orleans Pelicans outlook

New Orleans hosts the matchup with no Pelicans player listed in the IND@NOP section of that same official report. That is a narrower statement than declaring the entire roster healthy or every player available. It supplies no confirmed starting lineup.

The Pelicans' appeal is the home setting and the 3.5-point cushion against an opponent missing several personnel options. Their +135 moneyline makes them the underdog, but the spread allows a New Orleans ticket to win even with a loss by three points or fewer.

The case stops short of a demonstrated offensive or defensive advantage. There are no verified performance figures here to show how New Orleans might exploit Indiana's absences.

Key matchup factors

The central tension is Indiana's market support against its reduced personnel options. The prices favor the Pacers, while the injury report adds uncertainty about their margin. Neither tells us how the replacement combinations will perform.

In the October 21 consensus update at 11:06 a.m. UTC, Indiana -3.5 led the SportsJaw member picks at 55%, the sportsbook split at 58% and the blended consensus at 57%. Qualified handicapper picks also favored Indiana -3.5 at 58%. These are selection shares, not Indiana's probability of winning or covering.

That agreement helps explain the winner forecast, but the blended figure incorporates the sportsbook and community components. It should not be treated as another independent endorsement.

Indiana Pacers vs New Orleans Pelicans spread prediction

Pass on Indiana -3.5 (-110) and New Orleans +3.5 (-110). The 120-117 projection falls on the Pelicans' side of the spread, but a half-point difference between an editorial forecast and the line is too small to carry a wager by itself.

Indiana has the consensus support; New Orleans has the points and fewer listed injury concerns. With no verified performance comparison to separate those arguments, neither side earns an actionable recommendation at the supplied price.

Indiana Pacers vs New Orleans Pelicans total prediction

Pass on Over 239.5 (-107) and Under 239.5 (-107). The projected 237 points sit below the total, and the Under leads SportsJaw member picks at 71%, the sportsbook split at 62% and the blend at 64%. Qualified handicapper picks favor Under at 80%.

That is substantial agreement about direction, but it is not a scoring model or a confidence rating. Without verified pace or efficiency figures, there is no firm scoring argument behind the Under. Indiana's absences alone do not tell us how much the total should fall.

Indiana Pacers vs New Orleans Pelicans projected score

Game forecast: Indiana Pacers 120, New Orleans Pelicans 117. Indiana's favorite status and spread support earn it the narrow winner selection. Its three confirmed absences are the strongest counterargument and leave room for a Pelicans upset.

Confidence is low. The projected score is an editorial judgment, with too little separation from either line to justify a bet. The single official SportsJaw betting recommendation is Pass.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

Pacers120

Pelicans117

Projected winner Indiana PacersConfidencelow
Pick on the Spread

Published pick: Pass on Indiana Pacers -3.5 (-110) and New Orleans Pelicans +3.5 (-110)

Pick on the Total

Published pick: Pass (article line changed)

Sources

  • NBA OfficialInjury Report: 10/21/26 06:45 AM
  • Hoops NightlyPacers at Pelicans Wed, Oct 21: TV, time, how to watch

SportsJaw Pacers vs Pelicans game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Pacers vs Pelicans matchups or learn how our predictions work.

Current matchup data

Lines, trends and availability

Crowd vs qualified handicappers

Spread crowd
Indiana Pacers -3.5 (-110) · 55%
Spread qualified handicappers
Indiana Pacers -3.5 (-110) · 58%
Total crowd
Under 239 (-110) · 71%
Total qualified handicappers
Under 239 (-110) · 80%
Qualified handicappers need at least 20 graded picks and a 52.5% win rate. A market needs at least three current qualified picks. Selection share is not a win probability.

Line movement since open

  • Moneyline · Indiana Pacers-153 → -140Moved
  • Moneyline · New Orleans Pelicans+135 → +120Moved
  • Spread · Indiana Pacers-3.5 (-112) → -3.5 (-110)Moved
  • Spread · New Orleans Pelicans+3.5 (-108) → +3.5 (-110)Moved
  • Total · Over241.5 (-102) → 239 (-110)Moved
  • Total · Under241.5 (-112) → 239 (-110)Moved

ATS and O/U trends

Indiana Pacers
0-0 matchup record · 6-4-0 ATS · 7-3-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file
New Orleans Pelicans
0-0 matchup record · 7-2-1 ATS · 3-7-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file

Injuries and availability

From the published research (2026-10-21T03:14:45.158Z). Availability may have changed; review the cited sources.

Indiana is the pick to win, but the best betting decision is Pass. The Pacers' -140 moneyline and majority support across the spread consensus point toward a narrow road victory. Those signals carry less weight than a demonstrated matchup advantage, especially with Aaron Nesmith, T.J. McConnell and Johnny Furphy ruled out.

The projected three-point margin also falls short of Indiana's 3.5-point spread. That makes the distinction between picking a winner and placing a wager especially relevant. New Orleans gets the points, but the injury contrast alone is too thin a reason to make the Pelicans an official play.

Indiana's confirmed absences are the clearest personnel concern. The NBA's October 21 injury report, updated at 6:45 a.m. ET, lists Nesmith out with a left hamstring strain, McConnell out with a right hamstring strain and Furphy out following right ACL repair/surgery.

Recent head-to-head

No completed head-to-head result is available in the current history window.

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