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NCAAF PicksFri 10:30 PM ET
Montana St. Bobcats logo
Montana St.
Bobcats
4-0
versus
Idaho Vandals logo
Idaho
Vandals
0-4
NCAAF · mtst at IDAHO

Your Picks on Montana St. vs Idaho

Picks close 15 minutes before game time (ET)
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Moneyline
Total

Montana St. Bobcats vs Idaho Vandals Predictions Today

Game time: October 2, 2026 at 10:30 PM ET

Venue: Kibbie Dome — Moscow, ID

Article updated Oct 2, 7:38 AM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

Montana State will beat Idaho, with a projected score of Montana State 35, Idaho 24. The Bobcats’ replacement quarterback and running back delivered substantial production against Northern Arizona, giving the unbeaten visitors the stronger winning case. Idaho’s productive offense against FCS opponents, extra rest and Montana State’s confirmed absences make Idaho +17 (-111) the best bet. The total is a Pass.

Montana St. Bobcats vs Idaho Vandals prediction and best bet

Montana State has the stronger case to win this Big Sky matchup, but Idaho has the better case against the spread. The Bobcats enter 5-0 after beating Northern Arizona 28-14 with Patrick Duchien making his first career start at quarterback. That successful adjustment matters with Justin Lamson, Taco Dowler and Adam Jones ruled out for this game.

Idaho +17 (-111) is the official wager. The Vandals average 30.0 points against three FCS opponents and lost their two games before the bye by a combined eight points. Those results suggest a more competitive opponent than an 0-4 record implies. Montana State remains the winner pick; asking its depleted offense to create a margin beyond 17 points is a tougher proposition.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Game: Montana State at Idaho, 2026 college football season, Friday, October 2.

Kickoff: Both teams’ official previews list 7:30 p.m. Pacific, or 8:30 p.m. Mountain.

Venue and broadcast: P1FCU Kibbie Dome, Moscow, Idaho. ESPN.

Records: Montana State 5-0 overall, 2-0 Big Sky; Idaho 0-4 overall, 0-1 Big Sky. Montana State has won 19 consecutive games.

SportsJaw odds: Montana State -17 (-119); Idaho +17 (-111). Moneyline: Montana State -620; Idaho +510. Total: Over 58.5 (-115) or Under 58.5 (-115).

Montana St. Bobcats outlook

Montana State’s most encouraging evidence comes from the players who stepped into larger roles against Northern Arizona. Duchien threw for 204 yards and rushed for 77. Colson Coon supplied 197 rushing yards, while Carter Dahlke finished with 117 receiving yards. Those individual performances give the Bobcats several plausible routes to moving the ball despite their missing regulars.

Duchien’s rushing contribution is particularly useful to the forecast. Idaho must account for more than the running back, while Dahlke’s receiving production offers a reason to respect the passing game. One successful start is a limited sample, however. It shows that Duchien can produce in this offense without guaranteeing the same effectiveness on this trip.

The confirmed absences remain substantial: starting quarterback Lamson, leading receiver Taco Dowler and running back Jones will miss this matchup. Caden Dowler and Dom Solano also missed the Northern Arizona game, although that fact alone does not settle their availability against Idaho.

The 28-14 victory extended Montana State’s program-record winning streak to 19. It strengthens the straight-up selection, but a 14-point win with several replacement contributors is stronger evidence of resilience than of an inevitable runaway.

Idaho Vandals outlook

Idaho’s offensive results give the home underdog a credible scoring case. Across three FCS opponents, the Vandals average 407 yards and 30.0 points per game. They opened with 482 total yards against Cal Poly. The narrower FCS sample is useful here, although three games leave considerable room for variation against a different defense.

Joshua Wood averages 251.3 passing yards and 24.5 rushing yards against FCS competition and has accounted for nine total touchdowns in that context. Tony Harste leads Idaho’s receivers at 96.0 receiving yards per game. Wood’s production is the clearest reason to expect Idaho to contribute enough points to challenge a large spread.

The defensive picture has encouraging pieces, too. Idaho’s official preview says its pass defense improved each week, culminating in a season-low 148 passing yards allowed against Abilene Christian. Linebacker Cruz Hepburn has 34 tackles and 1.5 tackles for loss through four games.

Idaho returns from a bye after losing its previous two games by eight points combined. The break gives the Vandals extra preparation time, but close losses still leave them winless. Their recent pass-defense result also answers a different question from whether they can contain Coon and Duchien on the ground.

Key matchup factors

The central matchup is Idaho’s ability to limit Montana State’s rushing options without conceding productive passing opportunities. Duchien and Coon both delivered against Northern Arizona. If Idaho makes their gains harder to sustain, the missing offensive starters could become more consequential. If it fails, Montana State has a credible route to a comfortable victory.

SportsJaw’s October 2 consensus update at 06:30 UTC favors Montana State -17 (-119): both the community and qualified-handicapper groups show 63% support. Each group also favors Under 58.5 (-115) at 56%. These are separate pick percentages, not win probabilities or sportsbook betting splits. They put the Idaho recommendation against the current community preference, but popularity itself is not the reason to take the points.

Montana St. Bobcats vs Idaho Vandals spread prediction

Spread recommendation: Idaho Vandals +17 (-111). Idaho’s FCS scoring production, two narrow defeats before its bye and Montana State’s missing offensive starters collectively make the home underdog attractive at this number. The projected 11-point margin leaves room for a Bobcats victory while Idaho covers.

The risk is clear: Montana State’s replacements have already produced a win, and another strong rushing performance could stretch the margin. This is a modest betting edge, not an expectation that Idaho matches the visitors throughout. At exactly +17, a 17-point defeat would push; a smaller defeat would cover.

Montana St. Bobcats vs Idaho Vandals total prediction

Total recommendation: Pass on 58.5, with Over and Under both priced at -115. The projected 59 points sit almost directly on the number. Idaho’s scoring against FCS opponents argues against treating Montana State’s offensive absences as an automatic Under signal.

Montana State’s 28-14 result against Northern Arizona offers a lower-scoring example, but the supplied evidence contains no possession or pace figures. Strong rushing production can produce touchdowns as well as consume time. With plausible scoring arguments in both directions, neither Over 58.5 (-115) nor Under 58.5 (-115) earns a wager.

Montana St. Bobcats vs Idaho Vandals projected score

Projected score: Montana State 35, Idaho 24. Montana State’s unbeaten start and successful use of replacement contributors make the Bobcats the winner selection. Idaho’s offensive production and preparation advantage keep the projected margin below the supplied spread.

The strongest counterargument to the Idaho bet is Montana State’s demonstrated ability to overcome absences. Coon and Duchien could again generate enough offense to make the personnel concerns less important. Conversely, Idaho’s scoring record against FCS opponents makes a comfortable defensive night for the visitors too much to assume.

Forecast confidence is medium, with a more cautious view of the betting edge. The single official SportsJaw wager is Idaho Vandals +17 (-111). The total of 58.5 remains a Pass.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

mtst35

IDAHO24

Projected winner Montana St. BobcatsConfidenceSlight Lean — Idaho Vandals
Pick on the Spread

Slight Lean — Idaho Vandals +14.5

Editorial pick at publication: Spread: Idaho Vandals +17 (-111)

Pick on the Total

Slight Lean — Over 56.5

Editorial pick at publication: Pass (article line changed)

Sources

  • Montana State University AthleticsGAME #6: Bobcats Head to Idaho for Friday Night Showdown
  • University of Idaho AthleticsVandals Return From Bye Week to Host Bobcats on ESPN
  • AgentBets.aiMontana State Bobcats vs Idaho Vandals Odds — Spread, Moneyline & Total (Oct 2)

SportsJaw Bobcats vs Vandals game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Bobcats vs Vandals matchups or learn how our predictions work.

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