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NCAAF PicksSat 12:00 PM ET
Notre Dame Fighting Irish logo
Notre Dame
Fighting Irish
4-1
versus
Navy Midshipmen logo
Navy
Midshipmen
2-5
NCAAF · Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Navy Midshipmen

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Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Navy Midshipmen Predictions October 31, 2026

Game time: October 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET

Venue: Gillette Stadium — Foxborough, MA

Article updated Oct 27, 9:19 AM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

Notre Dame will beat Navy, with a projected score of Notre Dame 38, Navy 17. The strongest matchup advantage is the Fighting Irish’s defense, which allows just 67.3 rushing yards per game against a Navy offense built around its ground production. Neither Notre Dame -30.5 nor the total of 56 offers a compelling betting edge at the supplied prices. The official recommendation is Pass.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Navy Midshipmen prediction and best bet

Notre Dame has the stronger case to win this October 31 matchup: productive offense, excellent ball security and a defense that leads the country in total yards allowed. Navy’s rushing success gives the Midshipmen a meaningful strength, but Notre Dame’s run defense is the central reason to expect the Irish to take control.

The betting decision is less clear. Navy receives 30.5 points, yet its ability to sustain drives against this defense remains the crucial question. Notre Dame can win comfortably without covering, while its scoring production makes an automatic Under unattractive. Project Notre Dame 38, Navy 17, with medium confidence in the forecast and no official wager.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Game: 2026 college football, Saturday, October 31, at 12 p.m. ET.

Venue: Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. Broadcast: ABC.

Records: Notre Dame Fighting Irish 4-1; Navy Midshipmen 2-5.

SportsJaw odds: Notre Dame Fighting Irish -30.5 (-110); Navy Midshipmen +30.5 (-110). Moneyline: Notre Dame Fighting Irish -9,000; Navy Midshipmen +1,861. Total: Over 57 (-110); Under 57 (-110).

SportsJaw total: Over 56 (-110); Under 56 (-110). Moneyline: Notre Dame -7,500; Navy +2,000.

21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Picks are opinions, not guarantees. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

Personnel: Jayden Sanders is listed to start in place of injured Notre Dame cornerback DJ McKinney. McKinney is out with a right ankle injury.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish outlook

Notre Dame’s defensive numbers make the clearest argument for the favorite. The Irish allow 235 total yards per game, first nationally, and 67.3 rushing yards, third. They also rank fourth in scoring defense at 13.4 points per game and fifth with 16 forced turnovers. Against Navy, stopping the run offers a direct route to limiting the opponent’s most productive offensive weapon.

The offense supplies a separate reason to favor Notre Dame. C.J. Carr has completed 129 of 193 passes for 1,639 yards, 16 touchdowns and one interception. The Irish average 41.1 points per game, sixth nationally. Their offensive line allows an FBS-best 0.3 sacks per game, and the team’s one lost fumble and one interception represent the fewest total turnovers in FBS.

Jonaz Walton has 426 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 57 carries. Nolan James Jr. adds 412 yards and six touchdowns on 81 attempts. That production gives the forecast more support than Carr’s passing alone.

Availability complicates the defensive picture. Alongside McKinney’s absence, safety Brauntae Johnson remains out. Linebacker Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa, defensive end Loghan Thomas and cornerback Mark Zackery IV are questionable, as is tight end Cooper Flanagan. Those designations leave uncertainty around the personnel available Saturday.

Navy Midshipmen outlook

Navy’s record hides some competitive results. The Midshipmen have outscored opponents 208-204 despite standing 2-5. Before their 10-point loss to North Texas, they played five consecutive one-score games and went 1-4. That history explains why the record alone is an incomplete description, although close games against previous opponents offer no guarantee against Notre Dame.

The rushing offense is Navy’s strongest asset. It ranks third nationally at 307.7 yards per game, eighth at 5.72 yards per carry and fourth with 53.9 attempts per game. Both volume and efficiency matter: Navy has produced substantial yardage while repeatedly committing to the ground.

Quarterback Jackson Gutierrez averages 124.6 rushing yards per game, fourth nationally, and his 12 rushing touchdowns are tied for fourth in FBS. Against Tulsa on October 10, he ran 41 times for a career-high 232 yards and three touchdowns. Against North Texas, he gained 228 yards and scored three times on 26 carries, adding 133 passing yards and a touchdown on 7-for-10 passing.

The defensive concern is the distribution of points allowed: 143 in first halves and 61 after halftime. An early deficit against Notre Dame could make Navy’s task harder, even with Gutierrez capable of generating substantial offense.

Key matchup factors

The decisive question is whether Navy can turn rushing attempts into first downs. High rushing volume can help consume time, but it offers less protection against a large margin if Notre Dame repeatedly forces possessions to end quickly. Navy’s efficiency and Notre Dame’s resistance point in opposite directions, making this the game’s most consequential contest.

Ball security also favors the Irish forecast. Their two offensive turnovers contrast with 16 takeaways by their defense, although another takeaway is never guaranteed. Injuries add a counterweight. Thomas played more than half the defensive snaps against Rice’s option-oriented offense earlier this season; his questionable status could matter if Notre Dame needs similar personnel flexibility Saturday.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Navy Midshipmen spread prediction

Spread recommendation: Pass on Notre Dame -30.5 (-110) and Navy +30.5 (-110). The projected 21-point margin falls on Navy’s side, but that cushion is an editorial estimate rather than a measured betting advantage.

Navy’s rushing production and close results make taking the points tempting. The opposing case is substantial: Notre Dame pairs a high-scoring offense with a defense suited to challenging Navy’s primary strength. Navy’s first-half points allowed add another concern. Without a firmer reason to expect sustained drives against the Irish, the underdog recommendation is too fragile.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Navy Midshipmen total prediction

Total recommendation: Pass on Over 56 (-110) and Under 56 (-110). Notre Dame 38, Navy 17 produces 55 points, only one below the supplied total. That narrow difference is insufficient to make the Under the official play.

Notre Dame’s run defense supplies the strongest lower-scoring argument. Its 41.1-point offensive average and Navy’s first-half defensive results pull the other way. Navy’s rushing frequency suggests a possible clock benefit, but it is not a possession count. The balance of scoring risks leaves neither direction attractive enough at -110.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Navy Midshipmen projected score

Game forecast: Notre Dame 38, Navy 17. The Irish’s run defense is the strongest reason to expect them to win, while Carr’s passing production, protection and limited turnovers support a comfortable margin. Confidence is medium: the winning case is persuasive, but the exact margin is less secure.

Gutierrez supplies the strongest counterargument. His production against Tulsa and North Texas shows why Navy can challenge a forecast built around suppressing its rushing game. Notre Dame’s defensive availability adds uncertainty. Those considerations keep the projection short of the supplied spread without making Navy an automatic bet. Both the spread and total recommendations are Pass, and the single official SportsJaw betting lean is Pass.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

Fighting Irish38

Midshipmen17

Projected winner Notre Dame Fighting IrishConfidencemedium
Pick on the Spread

Published pick: Pass on Notre Dame Fighting Irish -30.5 (-110) and Navy Midshipmen +30.5 (-110)

Pick on the Total

Published pick: Pass (article line changed)

Sources

  • Naval Academy AthleticsNavy and #5/6 Notre Dame Set for 99th Meeting Saturday at Gillette Stadium
  • On3Notre Dame football injury report vs. Navy: One starter ruled out, two more questionable in Game 8
  • WNDUNotre Dame injury report: Who’s out and who’s questionable for Navy game?

SportsJaw Fighting Irish vs Midshipmen game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Fighting Irish vs Midshipmen matchups or learn how our predictions work.

Current matchup data

Lines, trends and availability

Crowd vs qualified handicappers

No qualifying consensus sample is available yet.

Qualified handicappers need at least 20 graded picks and a 52.5% win rate. A market needs at least three current qualified picks. Selection share is not a win probability.

Line movement since open

  • Moneyline · Notre Dame Fighting Irish-8,000 → -9,000Moved
  • Moneyline · Navy Midshipmen+2,200 → +1,861Moved
  • Spread · Notre Dame Fighting Irish-28.5 (-110) → -30.5 (-110)Moved
  • Spread · Navy Midshipmen+28.5 (-110) → +30.5 (-110)Moved
  • Total · Over53.5 (-110) → 57 (-110)Moved
  • Total · Under53.5 (-110) → 57 (-110)Moved

ATS and O/U trends

Notre Dame Fighting Irish
4-1 matchup record · 5-5-0 ATS · 7-3-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file
Navy Midshipmen
2-5 matchup record · 5-5-0 ATS · 6-4-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file

Injuries and availability

From the published research (2026-10-26T02:31:35.423Z). Availability may have changed; review the cited sources.

Personnel: Jayden Sanders is listed to start in place of injured Notre Dame cornerback DJ McKinney. McKinney is out with a right ankle injury.

Availability complicates the defensive picture. Alongside McKinney’s absence, safety Brauntae Johnson remains out. Linebacker Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa, defensive end Loghan Thomas and cornerback Mark Zackery IV are questionable, as is tight end Cooper Flanagan. Those designations leave uncertainty around the personnel available Saturday.

Ball security also favors the Irish forecast. Their two offensive turnovers contrast with 16 takeaways by their defense, although another takeaway is never guaranteed. Injuries add a counterweight. Thomas played more than half the defensive snaps against Rice’s option-oriented offense earlier this season; his questionable status could matter if Notre Dame needs similar personnel flexibility Saturday.

Recent head-to-head

  • 2025-11-08Navy Midshipmen 10 · Notre Dame Fighting Irish 49
  • 2024-10-26Notre Dame Fighting Irish 51 · Navy Midshipmen 14
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