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NCAAF MatchupsFri 7:00 PM ET
Navy
Midshipmen
1-1
versus
UAB
Blazers
1-2
NCAAF · NAVY at UAB

Your Picks on Navy vs UAB

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Navy vs UAB consensus picks

NAVY81%
19%UAB
Expert picks

Top handicapper on this matchup

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Georgew

19-5 record · 79.17% wins
Last 30 days · NCAAF

$1,000 pick on the total

Georgew

19-5 record · 79.17% wins

Navy Midshipmen vs UAB Blazers Predictions

Game time: September 25, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET

Venue: Protective Stadium — Birmingham, AL

Article updated Sep 22, 1:44 AM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

Navy’s rushing production supports a cautious lean against UAB, whose defensive response at Louisiana provides the strongest counterargument.

Matchup overview

The strongest angle in this September 25, 2026, college football matchup is Navy’s running game against a UAB defense that just allowed Louisiana 225 rushing yards. Navy averages 376.0 rushing yards and 6.9 yards per carry through two games, ranking second and sixth nationally. Those numbers favor the visiting Midshipmen, but the sample remains small. UAB held Louisiana scoreless after halftime in its latest loss, offering a reason to question how easily Navy can turn its statistical advantage into a victory by more than seven points.

At a glance

Kickoff: Friday, September 25, 2026, at 7:00 p.m. ET / 6:00 p.m. CT.

Venue: Protective Stadium, Birmingham, Alabama.

Broadcast: ESPN.

Records: Navy is 1-1 overall and 0-1 in the American. UAB is 1-2 overall and 0-0 in conference play.

Recent results: Navy lost 38-30 at Florida Atlantic on September 12. UAB lost 21-14 at Louisiana on September 19.

SportsJaw moneyline: Navy -275; UAB +225. Spread: Navy -7 (-110); UAB +7 (-110). Total: over 51.5 (-105); under 51.5 (-115).

Navy Midshipmen outlook

Navy’s rushing advantage includes both volume and efficiency. Its 376.0 yards per game show substantial production, while 6.9 yards per carry indicates that production has not depended solely on repeated attempts. Against a UAB team coming off a difficult rushing matchup, that combination is the clearest reason to favor the Midshipmen. It remains an early snapshot rather than proof of what Navy will sustain throughout the season.


Last 30 days · NCAAF

$500 pick on the spread

Braxton Woodson is central to that assessment. He averages 148 rushing yards per game, fourth nationally and first among quarterbacks, with four rushing touchdowns. UAB must account for his running within Navy’s option attack. His output gives the Midshipmen an established individual threat, although two games cannot establish how successfully he will handle this particular defense.

Navy’s defensive numbers also fit the matchup. The Midshipmen allow 40.5 rushing yards per game, second nationally. If that strength carries over, UAB could face greater pressure to improve a passing game its own staff has criticized. Navy has also scored touchdowns on all five red-zone trips and committed no turnovers through two games. Those results are encouraging, but neither should be treated as a guaranteed continuation.

The latest result supplies a meaningful caution: Navy lost 38-30 at Florida Atlantic on September 12. Strong rushing statistics did not ensure a win. Brian Newberry’s team is also 12-10 away from home compared with 15-3 at home, another reason to keep expectations measured for this trip.

UAB Blazers outlook

UAB’s 21-14 loss at Louisiana contained sharply different offensive and defensive signals. The Blazers allowed no second-half points and limited Louisiana to 108 yards after halftime. That recovery matters when assessing their chances against a favored opponent, even though Louisiana finished with 335 total yards to UAB’s 218 and a 225-74 advantage on the ground.

The offense provided less encouragement. UAB recorded 11 first downs and converted 2 of 11 third downs. Ryder Burton completed 15 passes for 144 yards, with no touchdowns and one interception. Across three games, he is 41-for-72 for 478 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions. Those results explain why a defensive improvement alone may not be enough.

Coach Alex Mortensen identified line-of-scrimmage play and early-down execution as areas needing attention. He also described shortcomings throughout the passing game. Rod Robinson emphasized protection alongside quarterback and receiver execution. The concern therefore extends beyond Burton’s individual numbers: UAB needs several parts of its offense to function better together.

Robinson II leads the rushing attack with 225 yards on 48 carries. Bam McReynolds has 143 yards and one touchdown on 36 attempts. EJ Reid has 12 receptions for 119 yards and a touchdown, while Ty Mims has nine catches for 120 yards and two scores.

Defensively, UAB allows 116.0 passing yards per game, sixth nationally. That is a positive early result, but it does not answer the central question against Navy’s rushing attack. Defensive lineman Tylin Jackson has identified both the option challenge and the need for a faster start.

Key matchup factors

The preparation calendar favors Navy in elapsed time between games. The Midshipmen last played September 12, while UAB played September 19 before this Friday conference opener. That difference does not establish a health or performance advantage, but it gives context to UAB’s task of addressing offensive problems while preparing for the option.

Field position and scoring outside the offense offer another route for UAB. Against Louisiana, Sterling Sanders forced the fumble that Chris Burge returned 13 yards for a touchdown. Mims’ 42-yard punt return set up Nate Rogers’ 11-yard rushing score. These were significant contributions in a game when UAB scored only one offensive touchdown; repeating comparable plays would help offset an offensive disadvantage.

Kicker Jonah Delange has made all seven field-goal attempts and all six extra points. That reliability could matter in a close finish. The distinction between the supplied wagers also matters: Navy can win without covering -7, and a seven-point victory would push that spread. The moneyline and spread therefore require different judgments about the same matchup.

Prediction

Navy is the selection, with a projected 28-20 victory and a low-confidence lean to Navy Midshipmen spread -7 (-110). The case rests on the matchup between Navy’s productive rushing offense and UAB’s recent difficulty defending the run, reinforced by Navy’s early run-defense results.

The strongest counterargument is UAB’s second-half defensive performance at Louisiana. The Blazers also demonstrated that defense and punt returns can create scoring opportunities when sustained offense is scarce. Navy’s recent loss and less dominant record away from home further limit confidence. Two Navy games and three UAB games are a narrow foundation for predicting a comfortable margin.

At Navy -275 moneyline, the price asks for more certainty about winning than this cautious assessment warrants. Navy -7 (-110) is the preferred lean, but the projected eight-point margin leaves little room for error. One field-position swing or stalled scoring opportunity could reverse the spread result. The rushing comparison supports a slight wager preference, not a strong value claim. There is no separate recommendation on over 51.5 (-105) or under 51.5 (-115).

Projected score

NAVY28

UAB20

ConfidenceSlight lean
Projected winner Navy Midshipmen
SportsJaw pick

Navy Midshipmen spread -7 (-110)

Sources

  • Naval Academy AthleticsNavy Football Back in Action Friday Night Under the Lights at UAB
  • UAB AthleticsBlazers Drop 21-14 Decision at Louisiana
  • UAB AthleticsBlazers Turn the Page to Navy After Louisiana Loss

SportsJaw Midshipmen vs Blazers game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Midshipmen vs Blazers matchups or learn how our predictions work.

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