SportsJaw
LeaderboardToday's GamesPredictionsBest BetsConsensus PicksMake Picks
Login / Sign In
Today's GamesLatest PredictionsToday’s Best BetsConsensus PicksTeam PredictionsHead-to-Head MatchupsSJ CoinsAbout SportsJawContact UsLogin / Sign In
HomeMatchupsMake PicksLeaders
SportsJaw

The social platform for sports bettors.

Explore SportsJaw

  • Today’s Picks
  • Latest Predictions
  • Best Bets
  • Leaderboard
  • Make Picks
  • Consensus Picks
  • Team Predictions
  • Head-to-Head

Picks by Sport

  • NFL Picks
  • NCAAF Picks
  • NBA Picks
  • NCAAB Picks
  • MLB Picks
  • NHL Picks

About SportsJaw

  • How It Works
  • SJ Coins
  • Terms
  • Privacy
  • Contact Us

© 2026 SportsJaw. For entertainment purposes only. SportsJaw does not accept or place wagers.

NCAAF MatchupsSat 7:30 PM ET
Troy Trojans logo
Troy
Trojans
2-1
versus
Utah State Aggies logo
Utah State
Aggies
0-3
NCAAF · TROY at UTST

Your Picks on Troy vs Utah State

Picks close 15 minutes before game time (ET)
Spread
Moneyline
Total
Expert picks

Top handicapper on this matchup

Selected from available sellers by NCAAF bankroll over the last 30 days. Selections unlock after purchase.

Tip to unlock expert picks

Johnmizner

23-15 record · 60.53% wins
Last 30 days · NCAAF

$500 pick on the spread

Troy Trojans vs Utah State Aggies Predictions Today

Game time: September 26, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET

Venue: Maverik Stadium — Logan, UT

Article updated Sep 26, 2:03 AM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

Troy will beat Utah State 24-20, with its recent defensive performance providing the strongest edge against an Aggies quarterback group that has thrown eight interceptions through three games. Troy +3 (-110) offers an actionable spread wager at the supplied SportsJaw price. The projected 44 points lean below 47, but turnover-related scoring risk makes the total a Pass.

Troy Trojans vs Utah State Aggies prediction and best bet

Troy +3 (-110) is the best bet because the Trojans have a credible route to winning outright without needing a dominant offensive performance. Their defense has allowed 225.5 yards per game across its last two games, including 230 at Missouri on September 19. That recent resistance is encouraging against Utah State’s turnover-prone quarterback group.

The concern is that Troy can create trouble for itself, too. Both offensive giveaways at Missouri led to touchdowns in a 27-17 defeat. Utah State’s defensive disruption makes another costly mistake plausible. Even with that risk, taking a field goal with the projected winner is the stronger choice. Confidence is medium, with the total evaluated separately.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Game: Troy at Utah State, 2026 college football season, Saturday, September 26.

Kickoff: 5:30 p.m. Mountain Time, also listed by Troy as 6:30 p.m. Central Time.

Venue: Maverik Stadium, Logan, Utah. This is Utah State’s Homecoming game.

Broadcast: CBS Sports Network.

Records: Troy 2-1; Utah State 0-3. Both enter 0-0 in conference play.

SportsJaw odds: Troy +3 (-110), Utah State -3 (-108). Moneyline: Troy +125, Utah State -145. Total: Over 47 (-110), Under 47 (-110).

Troy Trojans outlook

Troy’s September 19 loss at Missouri offers reasons for optimism and caution. The Trojans led 10-0 after the first quarter and held Missouri to 230 total yards, yet finished with a 27-17 defeat. An interception and a sack-fumble each led to Missouri touchdowns. The defensive result was encouraging; the possession mistakes were expensive.

Goose Crowder completed 18 of 32 passes for 230 yards and two touchdowns. Gavin Griffin rushed for 56 yards on 17 carries, leaving Troy with limited production from those rushing attempts. Crowder’s performance suggests a route to points through the air, although one game is a narrow basis for projecting another road performance.

Troy also carries a threat beyond steady possession football. Through three games, it ranks sixth nationally with four plays of at least 50 yards and fourth with three of at least 60 yards. Those gains make a sudden scoring opportunity plausible even if Utah State forces stalled possessions.

Defensively, Troy has allowed only 28 points on drives covering at least 70 yards this season. That supports making Utah State earn its points over distance. Protecting the ball is therefore central to preserving the advantage suggested by Troy’s recent yardage prevention.

Utah State Aggies outlook

Utah State enters after a 33-0 loss at Utah on September 19. Grady Brosterhous completed 15 of 29 passes for 130 yards and one interception, while his 17 carries produced 17 yards. That performance leaves a substantial offensive rebound built into any case for backing the Aggies as favorites.

The concern stretches across the opening three games. Utah State’s two quarterbacks have combined for four touchdowns and eight interceptions. Its defense has allowed 27 points following nine Aggie turnovers. Those figures make possession security a central matchup issue, although another interception-heavy game should not be treated as inevitable.

The defense gives Utah State a realistic answer. The Aggies rank second in the Pac-12 in total defense at 359.0 yards allowed per game and passing-efficiency defense at 123.1. They have recorded 16 tackles for loss and five sacks through three games.

Even in the shutout defeat, Utah State produced a season-high seven tackles for loss and five pass breakups. Disruption is its clearest route to changing this forecast: force Troy into difficult downs, pressure its passing game and capitalize on mistakes. That is a credible counterargument to the road underdog, particularly after Troy’s two damaging giveaways at Missouri.

Key matchup factors

Field position could matter as much as sustained offense. Both teams have evidence of giveaways turning into opponent points, so the forecast favors Troy’s defense without assuming turnovers will benefit only the Trojans. Utah State’s negative plays could offset Troy’s advantage in recent yardage prevention.

Explosive gains are the other swing factor. Troy has demonstrated the ability to cover substantial distance in one play, giving it a route around an otherwise disruptive defense.

SportsJaw’s community spread leader was Utah State -3 (-108), with 100% support at the September 23, 12:31 UTC update. That is member sentiment, not a win probability or sportsbook ticket share. The Troy selection rests on the matchup rather than a strategy of opposing that preference.

Troy Trojans vs Utah State Aggies spread prediction

Take Troy Trojans +3 (-110). The field goal provides useful protection in a matchup where Utah State’s defensive pressure could keep either offense from gaining control. A Troy outright win or loss by fewer than three points covers; a three-point loss pushes.

Utah State -3 (-108) needs a win by more than three to cash. Its defense supplies a reasonable path, but the offensive turnover record makes that requirement less appealing. Troy’s recent defensive work and demonstrated long-play threat support taking the points at the supplied price.

Troy Trojans vs Utah State Aggies total prediction

Pass on both Over 47 (-110) and Under 47 (-110). The forecast totals 44 points, and Troy’s recent defensive results give the under a plausible case. Utah State’s shutout last week also raises questions about its contribution to the score.

The risk runs in both directions. Giveaways can end scoring opportunities, but they can also hand opponents favorable field position, as both teams’ results illustrate. Troy’s long gains introduce another source of sudden points. A three-point gap between the forecast and the total is not enough here to make the under an official recommendation.

Troy Trojans vs Utah State Aggies projected score

The forecast is Troy 24, Utah State 20. Troy’s recent defensive resistance and Crowder’s productive passing performance at Missouri make the Trojans the pick to win. Taking +3 (-110) adds room for a narrow defeat if Utah State’s defensive disruption proves more influential than expected.

The strongest counterargument is Troy’s own ball security. Another pair of costly giveaways could overturn the advantage its defense appears to hold against Utah State’s struggling offense. That keeps confidence at medium rather than high. Troy Trojans +3 (-110) is the single official SportsJaw wager. The total of 47 remains a Pass despite a projected score below the line.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

TROY24

UTST20

Projected winner Troy TrojansConfidenceStrong Lean — Troy Trojans
Pick on the Spread

Strong Lean — Troy Trojans +3

Editorial pick at publication: Spread: Troy Trojans +3 (-110)

Pick on the Total

Slight Lean — Under 47.5

Editorial pick at publication: Pass (article line changed)

Sources

  • Utah State University AthleticsUtah State Football Hosts Troy in Homecoming Game Saturday Night
  • Troy University AthleticsPrevious-game context: Troy Puts Scare into No. 20 Missouri
  • Utah State University AthleticsPrevious-game context: Utah State Football Loses at No. 17 Utah 33-0

SportsJaw Trojans vs Aggies game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Trojans vs Aggies matchups or learn how our predictions work.

Keep browsing

More NCAAF matchups

Compare predictions, consensus picks and recorded odds for other NCAAF games on this slate.

View all NCAAF games
NCAAFSat 7:00 PM
PV-11.5 (-110)
gram+11.5 (-120)
O/U54.5
Matchup Coming Soon
NCAAFSat 7:00 PM
SOSCST-17.5 (-104)
cook+17.5 (-118)
O/U58.5
NCAAFSat 7:00 PM
S.ILL-17.5 (-110)
MURRAY+17.5 (-110)
O/U53.5
Matchup Coming Soon
NCAAFSat 7:30 PM
OREG-3.5 (-105)
USC+3.5 (-115)
O/U61.5
NCAAFSat 7:30 PM
TXAM+8.5 (-112)
LSU-8.5 (-108)
O/U52
NCAAFSat 7:30 PM
ARIZON-10.5 (-110)
WSHST+10.5 (-110)
O/U48
NCAAFSat 7:30 PM
APP-ST+14 (-110)
NCST-14 (-110)
O/U55.5
NCAAFSat 7:45 PM
MIZZOU+6 (-110)
MIS.ST-6 (-110)
O/U58.5
NCAAFSat 8:00 PM
TULSA+7 (-108)
ARK-7 (-112)
O/U50.5
NCAAFSat 8:00 PM
FLAATL-11.5 (-110)
UL.MON+11.5 (-110)
O/U58