Missouri St. Bears vs SMU Mustangs Predictions Today
SMU will beat Missouri State, with a projected score of SMU 44, Missouri State 20. Kevin Jennings’ efficient passing and the Mustangs’ strong home scoring history give SMU the clearest matchup advantage. The supplied prices offer no compelling wager: laying 34.5 requires a bigger rout than this forecast, while the 59.5 total leaves meaningful uncertainty about Missouri State’s scoring contribution. The official recommendation is Pass.
Missouri St. Bears vs SMU Mustangs prediction and best bet
SMU is the winner pick because Jennings brings proven production into a favorable home setting. He has completed 73.6% of his passes with nine touchdowns through three games. The Mustangs have also won 20 of their previous 22 home games, averaging 45.6 points across that stretch. Those are persuasive reasons to expect SMU to control the scoring.
The best betting decision is Pass. Missouri State’s passing production and SMU’s turnover trouble complicate a spread requiring a 35-point victory. Our 24-point projected margin favors the Bears numerically, but their penalties make that cushion less reassuring. The projected 64 combined points suggest an Over argument without making Over 59.5 (-115) a sufficiently strong wager.
Odds, game time and how to watch
Time: Saturday, September 26, 2026, at 8:00 p.m. Central, according to both schools’ previews.
Venue: Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas, Texas. Broadcast: ACC Network.
Records: Missouri State 1-2, 0-0 Conference USA; SMU 2-1, 1-1 ACC. SMU is No. 22 in the AP poll.
Weather: The Richardson-area Saturday-night forecast calls for mostly clear skies, a low around 74°F and south-southeast wind around 5 mph.