Your Picks on Iowa St. vs Iowa

The matchup

The Iowa State Cyclones visit the Iowa Hawkeyes at Kinnick Stadium on Sept. 12 in the 2026 college football season. Both teams enter 1-0. Iowa is priced at -603 on the moneyline and -14 (-110) against the spread; Iowa State is +455 and +14 (-110).

Iowa opened with a 40-0 victory over Northern Illinois, gaining 507 total yards, including 298 rushing yards. Kamari Moulton contributed 183 yards and two touchdowns on 11 carries. The Hawkeyes allowed 120 total yards and seven first downs while forcing two turnovers.

What the openers establish

Iowa State began Jimmy Rogers’ tenure by beating SEMO 38-10. Jaylen Raynor accounted for four touchdowns, and the Cyclones collected six sacks and three takeaways while surrendering 67 rushing yards.

Those performances give both teams encouraging starting points, but one game apiece does not establish how either will perform against this opponent. Iowa’s quarterback competition remained between Hank Brown and Jeremy Hecklinski, who each received five drives in the opener.

Iowa State also faces substantial personnel change. NBC Sports reports 83 new players and no returning starters. Raynor brings experience from 36 starts at Arkansas State between 2023 and 2025, but that experience does not settle how the rebuilt Cyclones will fare at Iowa.

Betting decision: Pass

The last eight rivalry meetings finished with margins of 10 points or fewer, and Iowa State won the previous two games in Iowa City. That history provides context for a 14-point spread, but it does not establish a covering edge for this roster.

The over is 41.5 (-110), and the under is 41.5 (-110). Strong offensive and defensive opening results do not provide a clear basis for choosing either. With no sufficiently supported edge on the side or total, the decision is Pass. No winner or projected score is assigned.