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NCAAF PicksSat 8:00 PM ET
Weber St. Wildcats logo
Weber St.
Wildcats
2-3
versus
Cal Poly-SLO Mustangs logo
Cal Poly-SLO
Mustangs
2-2
NCAAF · WEBER at CALPOL

Your Picks on Weber St. vs Cal Poly-SLO

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Weber St. Wildcats vs Cal Poly-SLO Mustangs Predictions Today

Game time: October 3, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET

Venue: Mustang Memorial Field at Spanos Stadium — San Luis Obispo, CA

Article updated Oct 3, 2:17 AM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

Cal Poly-SLO will beat Weber St., with a projected score of Cal Poly-SLO 35, Weber St. 31. Jaden Green's rushing production and Anthony Grigsby Jr.'s passing give the Mustangs a slight offensive balance advantage at home. Weber's productive passing attack keeps the forecast close, and neither the supplied 4.5-point spread nor the 65.5 total offers enough value. The official wager is Pass.

Weber St. Wildcats vs Cal Poly-SLO Mustangs prediction and best bet

Cal Poly's case starts with two ways to threaten Weber State: Green's long-run potential and Grigsby's touchdown production. Green enters averaging 122.4 rushing yards per game, while Grigsby has thrown 13 touchdown passes. Their complementary production earns the Mustangs a narrow nod in this Big Sky matchup.

Weber State brings a substantial counterweight, averaging 470 total yards and 36.6 points per game. That offense makes a comfortable home victory a difficult call. The forecast is Cal Poly-SLO 35, Weber St. 31, with low confidence. Pass is the best betting decision: the projected margin is inside Cal Poly's -4.5 (-110), and a 66-point forecast leaves almost no cushion against 65.5.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Kickoff: Saturday, October 3, 2026, at 5 p.m. Pacific, 6 p.m. Mountain.

Venue: Mustang Memorial Field, San Luis Obispo, California.

Broadcast: ESPN+.

Records: Cal Poly is 3-2 overall and 2-0 in the Big Sky. Weber State is 2-3 overall and 1-1 in conference play.

SportsJaw spread: Weber St. +4.5 (-110); Cal Poly-SLO -4.5 (-110).

SportsJaw moneyline: Weber St. +170; Cal Poly-SLO -200. SportsJaw total: Over 65.5 (-110) or Under 65.5 (-110).

Weber St. Wildcats outlook

Weber State's record understates the challenge its offense presents. The Wildcats lead the Big Sky and rank 11th nationally in total offense, according to their official matchup preview. Their 293 passing yards per game rank second in the conference. Alongside a 36.6-point scoring average, that production makes them a credible threat to win on the road.

Freshman quarterback Nate Dahle has 1,096 passing yards and 12 touchdown passes through five games. His 259.8 total yards per game add another measure of his contribution. Noah Kjar has turned 33 receptions into 542 yards and eight touchdowns, leading the nation in touchdown catches. Cal Poly must account for that scoring threat throughout the game; letting Weber answer quickly would make Green's rushing production less decisive.

The Wildcats also lead the Big Sky with 12 sacks and have blocked five kicks through five games. Those are meaningful ways to interrupt a close contest, though neither guarantees another disruptive play Saturday. Weber has won seven straight meetings and leads the series 12-6. That history strengthens the caution around laying points, but the current passing attack is the more persuasive reason to respect the Wildcats.

Cal Poly-SLO Mustangs outlook

Cal Poly enters after a 31-27 victory at Eastern Washington on September 26. Green rushed for 269 yards in that game, the second-highest single-game total in program history, and scored on runs of 55 and 53 yards. Those plays show why his rushing role matters beyond maintaining possession: he can produce points without a long sequence of successful snaps.

Green averages 122.4 rushing yards and 169.4 all-purpose yards per game. Grigsby supplies the passing complement, entering with 1,146 yards, 13 touchdown passes and four interceptions in 150 attempts. He has been responsible for 84 of Cal Poly's 151 points. The forecast favors that combination, while recognizing that another performance resembling Green's latest outing would be a demanding expectation.

Tayvion McCoy has 423 receiving yards and four touchdown catches. He caught late game-winning touchdown passes in both of Cal Poly's Big Sky victories, giving the Mustangs an established connection in close finishes. Defensively, Mikey D'Amato has 60 tackles and Kenny Olson has 52. Those individual totals identify contributors, but offer no assurance against Weber's passing offense. Cal Poly needs its offensive balance to carry considerable weight in this forecast.

Key matchup factors

The central question is whether Cal Poly can turn its rushing threat into enough scoring opportunities to match Weber's passing output. Green's long touchdowns offer one route; Grigsby's connection with McCoy offers another. Favoring Cal Poly depends on both elements contributing, rather than assuming Green repeats his 269-yard game.

Weber's sacks create a competing possibility: an early negative play could force Cal Poly into predictable passing situations. Kjar's scoring production also makes a late Wildcats answer plausible. These competing strengths point toward a close finish. The series streak deserves less weight than those current personnel matchups, and neither team's conference record alone settles how efficiently it will score Saturday.

Weber St. Wildcats vs Cal Poly-SLO Mustangs spread prediction

Pass on Cal Poly-SLO -4.5 (-110) and Weber St. +4.5 (-110). A four-point Cal Poly victory would cash the Wildcats' spread, but the half-point difference between that projection and the line is too narrow to anchor a recommendation.

Green and Grigsby make the home win attractive as a forecast. Dahle, Kjar and Weber's disruptive plays make the margin fragile. There is enough offensive talent on either side to change the result with one possession, leaving no compelling spread wager at the supplied prices.

Weber St. Wildcats vs Cal Poly-SLO Mustangs total prediction

Pass on Over 65.5 (-110) and Under 65.5 (-110). Weber's scoring average and Cal Poly's rushing and passing threats point toward a game with substantial scoring. The projected 66 points, however, sit only half a point above the line.

Weber's sacks could interrupt scoring drives, while Green's rushing workload could consume time if Cal Poly sustains possessions. Explosive touchdowns could push the other way. Without a clearer reason to expect either outcome consistently, the offensive names alone are insufficient grounds to pay -110 on the Over.

Weber St. Wildcats vs Cal Poly-SLO Mustangs projected score

The game forecast is Cal Poly-SLO 35, Weber St. 31. Green's rushing threat, Grigsby's passing production and McCoy's contributions in close conference wins give the Mustangs a slight edge at home. The prediction anticipates enough success from both offenses to keep the outcome in doubt late.

Weber's conference-leading yardage production is the strongest counterargument, with Kjar's eight touchdown catches adding particular concern. Confidence is low because those strengths could readily overturn Cal Poly's advantage. Separately, the projected margin and total sit too close to the supplied betting lines to justify a wager. Both markets are passes, and the single official SportsJaw betting lean is Pass.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

WEBER31

CALPOL35

Projected winner Cal Poly-SLO MustangsConfidenceSlight Lean — Weber St. Wildcats
Pick on the Spread

Slight Lean — Weber St. Wildcats +5.5

Editorial pick at publication: Pass (article line changed)

Pick on the Total

Slight Lean — Under 67.5

Editorial pick at publication: Pass (article line changed)

Sources

  • Cal Poly AthleticsBig Sky Co-Leader Cal Poly Welcomes Weber State Saturday at 5 p.m.
  • Weber State University AthleticsGame 6: Back on the road at Cal Poly Saturday
  • AgentBets.aiWeber State Wildcats vs Cal Poly Mustangs Odds — Spread, Moneyline & Total (Oct 3)

SportsJaw Wildcats vs Mustangs game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Wildcats vs Mustangs matchups or learn how our predictions work.

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