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  1. Home
  2. NCAAF Picks
  3. Texas Longhorns vs Missouri Tigers
Sat 12:00 PM ET
Texas Longhorns logo
Texas
Longhorns
6-2
versus
Missouri Tigers logo
Missouri
Tigers
6-2
NCAAF · Texas Longhorns at Missouri Tigers

Your Picks on Texas vs Missouri

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Moneyline
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Texas vs Missouri consensus picks

Texas Longhorns38%
62%Missouri Tigers
Odds comparison

Sportsbook lines for this game

Current lines

MatchupBest availableDraftKingsFanDuelHeritage
Nov 7, 12:00 PM ETTexas LonghornsMissouri Tigers
Best available+0.0001Heritage+150FanDuel
DraftKings-162+136
FanDuel-178+150BEST
Heritage+0.0001BEST+0.0001

Texas Longhorns vs Missouri Tigers Betting Picks & Predictions

Game time: November 7, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET

Venue: Memorial Stadium — Columbia, MO

Article updated Nov 1, 1:31 AM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

Texas will beat Missouri 27-23, with its sustained defensive success against SEC opponents providing the strongest matchup reason. Arch Manning’s efficient performance against Mississippi State strengthens that forecast, while Jamal Roberts gives Missouri a credible response. Neither Texas -3.5 (-114) nor the 49.5 total offers a convincing betting edge at the supplied prices. The official recommendation is Pass.

Texas Longhorns vs Missouri Tigers prediction and best bet

Texas gets the pick because its defensive case stretches beyond one Saturday. Through Oct. 31, the Longhorns reported holding all five SEC opponents to season lows in yards per play. That record of limiting opponents is the best reason to favor Texas against a Missouri offense featuring a 1,005-yard rusher.

The forecast is Texas 27, Missouri 23, with low confidence and no official wager. Both teams enter 6-2 overall and 3-2 in the SEC after decisive victories. Missouri’s performance at Arkansas supplies enough resistance to make laying 3.5 points uncomfortable. A four-point projection barely clears that spread, and the evidence offers no persuasive reason to pay for such a narrow distinction.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Game: Texas at Missouri, 2026 college football season.

Kickoff: Nov. 7, 2026, at 11 a.m. CT, noon ET.

Venue: Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium, Columbia, Missouri.

Broadcast: ESPN, according to both teams’ Oct. 31 recaps, following the SEC’s earlier ABC-or-ESPN designation.

Records: Texas Longhorns 6-2; Missouri Tigers 6-2.

SportsJaw moneyline: Texas -172; Missouri +142. Spread: Texas -3.5 (-114); Missouri +3.5 (-106). Total: Over 49.5 (-110); Under 49.5 (-110). These prices frame the separate spread and total evaluations below.

21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Picks are opinions, not guarantees. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

Texas Longhorns outlook

Texas beat Mississippi State 31-3 in Austin on Oct. 31, allowing 187 total yards. Texas described that yardage figure as a season low for the Bulldogs. Its broader statement about all five SEC opponents posting season lows in yards per play carries more weight for this forecast than the final margin alone: the defensive success has extended across multiple conference matchups.

Manning completed 16 of 20 passes for 220 yards and three touchdowns. Emmett Mosley V contributed four catches for a season-high 98 yards and a touchdown. Those performances give Texas a plausible way to score without needing an overwhelming number of possessions. They remain results against Mississippi State, however, rather than a guarantee of similar efficiency against Missouri.

Rasheem Biles supplied three sacks, two forced fumbles, eight tackles and four tackles for loss in that victory. His disruption makes protection an important concern for Missouri, especially if the Tigers face passing situations. Texas’ challenge is to complement that defensive pressure with secure offensive possessions. Missouri just scored 24 points off Arkansas turnovers, making ball security a central condition of the Longhorns’ path to victory.

Missouri Tigers outlook

Missouri earned its own emphatic result on Oct. 31, beating Arkansas 34-10 in Fayetteville. The Tigers allowed 59 rushing yards and 288 total yards. That defensive performance is the strongest counterweight to an optimistic reading of Manning’s latest outing. Texas must reproduce its offensive efficiency against a team coming off a convincing defensive game of its own.

Roberts gives Missouri a substantial rushing foundation. He carried 23 times for 138 yards and a touchdown against Arkansas, adding three catches for 20 yards and another touchdown. Missouri reported that he entered Texas week with 1,005 rushing yards. His receiving contribution also gives the Tigers another option when a possession requires more than a successful handoff.

Austin Simmons completed 20 of 31 passes for 179 yards against Arkansas. Missouri converted four Arkansas turnovers into 24 points, so its 34-point output should not be treated as a simple measure of sustained offensive production. Ahmad Hardy also made his first appearance of the season after recovering from a spring gunshot wound. His return is relevant personnel news, but projecting a larger role against Texas would go beyond what his appearance tells us.

Key matchup factors

Roberts against the Texas defense should shape Missouri’s choices. Productive rushing would let the Tigers remain patient; stalled carries would put more responsibility on Simmons and pass protection. The other major variable is turnovers. Missouri’s Arkansas result shows how dramatically takeaways can change a scoring margin, but forecasting another four-turnover haul would be a substantial assumption.

SportsJaw’s Nov. 1 consensus update, timestamped 05:20 UTC, favors Missouri +3.5 at 75% and Texas on the moneyline at 83%. Those are separate market preferences, not win probabilities. The combined modeled spread sample assigns Missouri 450 of 600 equivalent selections. It incorporates modeled sportsbook activity and SportsJaw participation, rather than representing 600 observed sportsbook tickets.

Texas Longhorns vs Missouri Tigers spread prediction

Pass on Texas -3.5 (-114) and Missouri +3.5 (-106). The projected four-point Texas victory would cover the favorite’s spread and leave Missouri short. That makes a Missouri recommendation inconsistent with this particular score forecast unless a separate, stronger case for its covering probability emerges.

Texas’ conference defensive record supports selecting the winner, but Missouri’s rushing production and latest defensive performance keep the margin uncertain. The half-point gap between the forecast and the spread is too small to justify Texas at -114. Missouri’s consensus support adds context without making the underdog a bargain.

Texas Longhorns vs Missouri Tigers total prediction

Pass on Over 49.5 (-110) and Under 49.5 (-110). The projected 50 points sit only half a point above the total. Manning’s latest passing performance and Roberts’ contributions as a runner and receiver offer a reasonable scoring case, but that slender difference is no convincing Over edge.

The defensive counterargument is substantial: Texas allowed three points against Mississippi State, while Missouri allowed 10 against Arkansas. Turnovers could also change possession quality and scoring opportunities. With credible arguments in both directions, neither total selection earns the official wager.

Texas Longhorns vs Missouri Tigers Projected Score & Betting Picks

Game forecast: Texas 27, Missouri 23. Texas’ defensive performance across five SEC opponents gives the Longhorns the deciding advantage, with Manning’s recent efficiency supplying a complementary reason to expect enough offense. Missouri’s strongest response is Roberts, backed by a defense that just limited Arkansas on the ground.

Confidence is low because Missouri’s latest victory offers meaningful counterevidence and the forecast requires Texas to carry its recent form into this road matchup. The projected margin favors Texas against the spread by only half a point, and the projected total clears 49.5 by the same amount. Both markets are passes. The single official SportsJaw betting recommendation is Pass.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

Longhorns27

Tigers23

Projected winner Texas LonghornsConfidencelow
Pick on the Spread

Published pick: Pass on Texas Longhorns -3.5 (-114) and Missouri Tigers +3.5 (-106)

Pick on the Total

Published pick: Pass (article line changed)

Sources

  • Southeastern ConferenceSEC Football on TV: Nov. 7
  • University of Texas AthleticsPrevious-game context: No. 11/11 Football downs Mississippi State, 31-3
  • University of Missouri AthleticsPrevious-game context: No. 23 Football Runs Past Arkansas, Secures Battle Line Rivalry Trophy
#TexasLonghorns#MissouriTigers

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Written by

SportsJaw Editorial Team

SportsJaw's editorial organization researches matchup data, current odds, injuries and reporting, then validates each published preview against its listed sources and displayed markets.

About our editorial process

SportsJaw Longhorns vs Tigers game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Longhorns vs Tigers matchups or learn how our predictions work.

Current matchup data

Lines, trends and availability

Line movement since open

  • Moneyline · Texas Longhorns-205 → -178Moved
  • Moneyline · Missouri Tigers+168 → +150Moved
  • Spread · Texas Longhorns-5.5 (-110) → -3.5 (-120)Moved
  • Spread · Missouri Tigers+5.5 (-110) → +3.5 (-102)Moved
  • Total · Over51.5 (-110) → 47.5 (-122)Moved
  • Total · Under51.5 (-110) → 47.5 (-113)Moved

ATS and O/U trends

Texas Longhorns
6-2 matchup record · 5-5-0 ATS · 5-5-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file
Missouri Tigers
6-2 matchup record · 5-5-0 ATS · 3-7-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file

Injuries and availability

From the published research (2026-11-01T03:27:42.257Z). Availability may have changed; review the cited sources.

No verified injury or availability note was included in the published matchup research.

Recent head-to-head

No completed head-to-head result is available in the current history window.

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