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NCAAF PicksSat 7:30 PM ET
USC Trojans logo
USC
Trojans
6-1
versus
Wisconsin Badgers logo
Wisconsin
Badgers
3-2
NCAAF · USC Trojans at Wisconsin Badgers

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USC Trojans vs Wisconsin Badgers Predictions October 24, 2026

Game time: October 24, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET

Venue: Camp Randall Stadium — Madison, WI

Article updated Oct 18, 12:10 AM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

USC is projected to beat Wisconsin 28-24, with Jayden Maiava's passing efficiency and the Trojans' protection providing the strongest reason to favor the visitors. Wisconsin quarterback Colton Joseph's running ability makes this a low-confidence forecast. Neither USC -1.5 (-110) nor the 50.5 total offers a sufficiently convincing betting edge, so the official recommendation is Pass.

USC Trojans vs Wisconsin Badgers prediction and best bet

USC is the pick for this October 24, 2026 college football matchup at Wisconsin. The Trojans' passing production gives them a plausible route to a narrow road win, particularly after Maiava threw for 301 yards and three touchdowns in the October 10 victory at Penn State.

The best betting decision is Pass. A productive offense supports the winner selection, but backing USC against the spread also requires confidence in its ability to contain Joseph. His performance against Michigan State makes that a substantial concern. The projected four-point margin is an editorial estimate, not enough by itself to justify a wager.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Game time: October 24, 2026, at 6:30 p.m. CT, as listed in Wisconsin's October 15 preview. Wisconsin hosts USC.

SportsJaw moneyline: USC -120; Wisconsin +100.

SportsJaw odds: USC Trojans -2.5 (-110); Wisconsin Badgers +2.5 (-108). Moneyline: USC Trojans -135; Wisconsin Badgers +115. Total: Over 49.5 (-110); Under 49.5 (-110).

SportsJaw total: Over 50.5 (-116); Under 50.5 (-106).

Dated team status: Wisconsin was 4-1 overall and 2-0 in Big Ten play entering its October 17 game at UCLA. Its October 15 preview listed USC at No. 19. Those details describe the earlier report, rather than updated game-week records or rankings.

21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Picks are opinions, not guarantees. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

USC Trojans outlook

Through October 14, USC averaged 310.1 passing yards, 152.3 rushing yards and 36.4 points per game. Maiava had completed 152 of 224 attempts, or 67.9 percent, for 2,045 yards and 18 touchdowns. That combination supports a forecast built around sustained offensive production rather than dependence on one explosive play.

Protection has held up through personnel changes. USC had allowed six sacks through that report. Kilian O'Connor sustained a season-ending injury before the opener, and Tobias Raymond became the starting center. Freshman Vlad Dyakonov filled in at left tackle against Penn State after Elijah Paige was ruled out during warmups. That appearance does not settle Paige's availability against Wisconsin.

The 31-23 Penn State win also featured 129 rushing yards, with King Miller exceeding 100. USC generated 430 total yards and 6.8 yards per play, giving the forecast a recent road performance to build on.

Wisconsin Badgers outlook

Wisconsin's October 3 victory over Michigan State supplies its clearest recent performance example here. The Badgers won 31-3 at home, with Joseph throwing three touchdown passes and rushing for 141 yards. The rushing total set a Wisconsin quarterback record for a conference game.

Joseph's mobility is the strongest reason to resist treating USC as a comfortable favorite. Designed runs or successful scrambles could force the Trojans to defend more than the initial passing play. Wisconsin's route to an upset is credible if that threat keeps possessions alive.

Jacob Harris adds another scoring option. The tight end caught touchdowns in consecutive games against Penn State and Michigan State, including two against the Spartans. Those results establish recent touchdown production, although they do not identify where on the field his scoring opportunities developed.

Key matchup factors

The central question is whether USC's protection translates into enough productive possessions to offset Joseph's running threat. Keeping Maiava upright would let the Trojans lean on their demonstrated passing strength; extended Wisconsin drives could reduce how often he gets that opportunity.

Field position offers USC another possible advantage. Through October 14, Trent Mosley had returned five punts for 158 yards, including an 86-yard touchdown against Louisiana. That is meaningful upside, but five returns are too few to make another major return a foundation of the prediction.

The statistical picture is also uneven. USC's offensive season totals are detailed, while Wisconsin's case rests more heavily on individual game performances. That imbalance warrants caution when comparing the teams' overall quality.

USC Trojans vs Wisconsin Badgers spread prediction

Pass on the spread: USC -1.5 (-110) and Wisconsin +1.5 (-110). The projected USC victory would cover, but the case for a wager is weaker than the case for selecting a winner. Joseph supplies a credible threat to that narrow projected advantage.

USC must win by at least two points to cover. Its -120 moneyline costs more than the -110 spread, but the cheaper spread price alone does not create value. Neither side earns an official recommendation.

USC Trojans vs Wisconsin Badgers total prediction

Pass on total 50.5, with Over priced at -116 and Under at -106. The projected 52 points lean above the line, but the small difference leaves little room for an inaccurate scoring estimate.

USC's offense and Joseph's dual-threat performance suggest scoring potential. Wisconsin holding Michigan State to three points supplies a counterargument, though one defensive result is a weak guide to this different opponent. Neither direction offers a convincing edge.

USC Trojans vs Wisconsin Badgers projected score

Game forecast: USC 28, Wisconsin 24. Maiava's efficiency and USC's protection give the Trojans the narrow advantage. Joseph's ability to produce through the air and on the ground is the strongest counterargument.

Confidence is low because the offensive evidence favors USC more clearly than the overall matchup does. The winner remains USC; the spread and total are separate passes. The single official SportsJaw betting recommendation is Pass.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

Trojans28

Badgers24

Projected winner USC TrojansConfidencelow
Pick on the Spread

Published pick: Pass (article line changed)

Pick on the Total

Published pick: Pass on total 50.5: Over (-116), Under (-106)

Sources

  • USC AthleticsUSC Offensive Line Named to Joe Moore Award Midseason Honor Roll
  • USC AthleticsUSC Defensive Tackle Jide Abasiri Named Quarterfinalist for Lott IMPACT Trophy
  • USC AthleticsUSC’s Trent Mosley Named to Jet Award Midseason Watch List

SportsJaw Trojans vs Badgers game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Trojans vs Badgers matchups or learn how our predictions work.

Current matchup data

Lines, trends and availability

Crowd vs qualified handicappers

No qualifying consensus sample is available yet.

Qualified handicappers need at least 20 graded picks and a 52.5% win rate. A market needs at least three current qualified picks. Selection share is not a win probability.

Line movement since open

  • Moneyline · USC Trojans-113 → -135Moved
  • Moneyline · Wisconsin Badgers+113 → +115Moved
  • Spread · USC Trojans-1.5 (-110) → -2.5 (-110)Moved
  • Spread · Wisconsin Badgers+1.5 (-110) → +2.5 (-108)Moved
  • Total · Over52.5 (-110) → 49.5 (-110)Moved
  • Total · Under52.5 (-110) → 49.5 (-110)Moved

ATS and O/U trends

USC Trojans
6-1 matchup record · 2-8-0 ATS · 6-4-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file
Wisconsin Badgers
3-2 matchup record · 7-3-0 ATS · 2-7-1 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file

Injuries and availability

From the published research (2026-10-18T04:10:36.892Z). Availability may have changed; review the cited sources.

Protection has held up through personnel changes. USC had allowed six sacks through that report. Kilian O'Connor sustained a season-ending injury before the opener, and Tobias Raymond became the starting center. Freshman Vlad Dyakonov filled in at left tackle against Penn State after Elijah Paige was ruled out during warmups. That appearance does not settle Paige's availability against Wisconsin.

Recent head-to-head

  • 2024-09-28Wisconsin Badgers 21 · USC Trojans 38
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