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NCAAF PicksFri 7:00 PM ET
Columbia Lions logo
Columbia
Lions
2-1
versus
Marist Red Foxes logo
Marist
Red Foxes
2-2
NCAAF · clmb at mrst

Your Picks on Columbia vs Marist

Picks close 15 minutes before game time (ET)
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Spread

Mookiebets

Ranked #1 in NCAAFUp $18,600

L365: 43-18 · 70.49% wins

$1,000 pick on the spread

Guaranteed winner or credits back

Columbia Lions vs Marist Red Foxes Predictions October 9, 2026

Game time: October 9, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET

Venue: Tenney Stadium at Leonidoff Field — Poughkeepsie, NY

Article updated Oct 6, 11:21 PM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

Marist is projected to beat Columbia 24-20, with the Red Foxes' recent rushing production and run defense giving them a slight matchup edge. Columbia's passing attack is the strongest threat to that forecast. Neither Marist +1.5 (-138) nor the total of 43.5 offers a strong enough edge for an actionable wager, making the official SportsJaw betting recommendation Pass.

Columbia Lions vs Marist Red Foxes prediction and best bet

Marist gets the pick in this Oct. 9 college football matchup, but confidence is low. Isaiah Simmons' productive outing against Stetson suggests a route to attacking a Columbia defense that struggled against Princeton's running game. That is a plausible advantage, with an important limit: those performances came against different opponents.

The official betting recommendation is Pass. Marist's recent results make a narrow home victory a reasonable forecast, but they are not enough to justify paying -138 for the Red Foxes +1.5. Columbia's passing production and the SportsJaw consensus favoring the Lions keep the spread decision close.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Date and location: Friday, Oct. 9, 2026, in Poughkeepsie, New York. Columbia visits Marist in this 2026 season matchup.

Broadcast: ESPN+.

Records: Columbia is 2-1 after losing its Ivy opener to Princeton. Marist is 3-2 overall and 2-0 in Pioneer Football League play after beating Stetson.

SportsJaw odds: Columbia moneyline -120; Marist moneyline -106. Spread: Columbia -1.5 (-122), Marist +1.5 (-138). Total: Over 43.5 (-125), Under 43.5 (-122).

SportsJaw consensus: As of Oct. 7, 2026, at approximately 00:32 UTC, Columbia -1.5 (-122) leads member spread picks with 62%, while 60% of qualified handicapper picks favor that side. Over 43.5 (-125) leads member total picks with 80% and qualified handicapper picks with 75%. These are pick shares, not estimated probabilities of winning.

Total

Mrmister

Ranked #4 in NCAAFUp $16,018

L365: 39-21 · 65% wins

$500 pick on the total

Guaranteed winner or credits back

Columbia Lions outlook

Columbia's passing game offers its clearest reason for optimism after the Oct. 3 loss to Princeton, 35-7. Chase Goodwin completed 35 of 51 passes for 331 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Bryce Coleman contributed seven catches for 89 yards and a touchdown, extending his scoring-catch streak to three games.

The gap between yardage and points matters. Columbia converted 8 of 16 third downs but failed on all four fourth-down attempts. Those results show why moving the ball alone is not enough to predict a scoring rebound. The Lions need more possessions to finish with points if their passing advantage is to decide this game.

Columbia also finished with 91 rushing yards while conceding 245 on the ground. Those are concerns entering Friday, although one game against Princeton should not be treated as a complete measure of the Lions.

Marist Red Foxes outlook

Marist beat Stetson 28-14 on Oct. 3 with scoring contributions from both its running and passing games. Simmons rushed for 85 yards and two touchdowns on 14 carries, totaling 97 yards from scrimmage. His production supplies the most direct offensive reason for the Marist forecast.

Sonny Mannino threw for 204 yards and two touchdowns without an interception, completing 13 of 29 attempts. Lance Martinez led the receivers with three catches for 71 yards and a touchdown. The touchdown production was encouraging, but Mannino's completion rate leaves room for drives to stall if Marist needs to rely more heavily on passing.

Defensively, the Red Foxes limited Stetson to minus-1 rushing yard on 15 attempts. Tyrell Powell recorded nine solo tackles and a pass breakup. That was a strong single-game result; repeating it against Columbia is a separate challenge.

Key matchup factors

The central question is whether Marist can turn its recent rushing success into a repeatable advantage. If Simmons keeps the offense moving without requiring frequent difficult throws, the Red Foxes have a credible path to a close victory. Columbia's latest defensive performance makes that scenario worth favoring slightly.

The counterweight is Columbia's ability to pass even when its rushing output is modest. Marist's performance against Stetson's ground game says little about how it will handle Goodwin and Coleman. The forecast therefore depends on a competitive balance between Marist's running game and Columbia's aerial production, rather than an expectation of defensive dominance.

Columbia Lions vs Marist Red Foxes spread prediction

Pass on Columbia -1.5 (-122) and Marist +1.5 (-138). The projected Marist victory points toward the underdog, but the price demands more conviction than this matchup warrants. At -138, Marist needs a cover probability of about 58% to break even.

The 1.5-point cushion protects a Marist backer against only a one-point Columbia win. It offers no protection against a two- or three-point loss. With the member and qualified handicapper majorities favoring Columbia, there is enough opposing sentiment to reinforce restraint, though those shares are not a substitute for a cover-probability estimate.

Columbia Lions vs Marist Red Foxes total prediction

Pass on Over 43.5 (-125) and Under 43.5 (-122). The projected 44 points sit just half a point above the line, leaving too little separation to justify an Over wager.

Columbia's passing output and Marist's four-touchdown performance against Stetson suggest scoring potential. Columbia's seven-point finish against Princeton and Mannino's uneven completion rate suggest possible interruptions. The strong Over consensus is clear, but it does not turn this narrow scoring forecast into a demonstrated betting edge.

Columbia Lions vs Marist Red Foxes projected score

Game forecast: Marist 24, Columbia 20. The Red Foxes get the slight edge because Simmons' recent production offers a plausible way to exploit Columbia's latest defensive weakness. Goodwin and Coleman are the strongest counterargument and could readily swing the outcome.

Confidence is low because the matchup case rests heavily on one recent game for each team against different opponents. Marist remains the projected winner; both the spread and total recommendations are Pass. The single official SportsJaw betting lean is Pass.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

clmb20

mrst24

Projected winner Marist Red FoxesConfidenceModerate Lean — Marist Red Foxes
Pick on the Spread

Moderate Lean — Marist Red Foxes +1.5

Editorial pick at publication: Pass on Columbia Lions -1.5 (-122) and Marist Red Foxes +1.5 (-138)

Pick on the Total

Slight Lean — Over 43.5

Editorial pick at publication: Pass on Over 43.5 (-125) and Under 43.5 (-122)

Sources

  • Columbia University AthleticsPrevious-game context: Football Falls to Princeton In Ivy Opener
  • Marist University AthleticsPrevious-game context: Marist Football Pulls Away for Victory at Stetson

SportsJaw Lions vs Red Foxes game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Lions vs Red Foxes matchups or learn how our predictions work.

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