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NBA PicksWed 8:00 PM ET
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Denver
Nuggets
1-2
versus
New Orleans Pelicans logo
New Orleans
Pelicans
0-3
NBA · Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans

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Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans Predictions Today

Game time: October 28, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET

Venue: Smoothie King Center — New Orleans, LA

Article updated Oct 28, 8:00 AM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

The Denver Nuggets will beat the New Orleans Pelicans, with a projected score of Nuggets 123, Pelicans 118. Nikola Jokić’s playmaking and Denver’s stronger prior-season shooting give the visitors the offensive edge, while Yves Missi’s absence adds to New Orleans’ challenge. Confidence is low given Denver’s defensive problems. Neither Denver -5 (-110) nor the 240.5 total offers a strong enough edge to bet.

Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans prediction and best bet

Denver gets the pick because its offensive production offers the stronger starting point. Jamal Murray is averaging 22.3 points through three games, and Jokić is averaging 8.7 assists. The Nuggets also won the recent meeting 141-135 after New Orleans built a 23-point lead. That comeback supports Denver’s chances, although needing it is a warning about how competitive this matchup can be.

The official best bet is Pass. Denver’s recent defensive trouble makes laying five points uncomfortable, and the Pelicans’ winless record alone is no reason to take their +5. The total deserves its own assessment: another productive scoring night is plausible, but 240.5 already asks for substantial offense.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Game: Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans, October 28, 2026, in the 2026-27 NBA season.

Time and venue: 8:00 p.m. ET at Smoothie King Center in New Orleans.

Records: Denver Nuggets 1-2; New Orleans Pelicans 0-3.

Availability: Cameron Johnson is doubtful and Yves Missi is out. Jordan Poole is probable.

SportsJaw spread and moneyline: Denver -5 (-110) and -194; New Orleans +5 (-109) and +169.

21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Picks are opinions, not guarantees. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

SportsJaw total: Over 240.5 (-110) or Under 240.5 (-110). Both markets are evaluated separately below.

Denver Nuggets outlook

Denver’s offense supplies the clearest argument for an outright win. Alongside Jamal Murray’s 22.3 points per game, Jokić has averaged 9.7 rebounds and 8.7 assists through three appearances. Those are useful contributions across several possessions, although three games remain a small sample. The 141 points against New Orleans offer a direct example of Denver finding enough offense to win this particular matchup.

The longer view also favors the Nuggets offensively. In 2025-26, Denver averaged 122.1 points and 29.0 assists while shooting 39.6% from three. Those figures make a productive scoring forecast reasonable, but they describe last season. They should carry less weight than a confirmed change in this game’s personnel or a sustained current-season trend.

The immediate concern is defense. Fubo reports that Denver allowed 74 second-half points in its most recent game, a blowout loss to Golden State. Availability adds uncertainty: the NBA’s morning report lists Johnson doubtful with a right ankle sprain, Julian Strawther out with a left knee sprain, Spencer Jones out for bilateral hamstring injury management and Alpha Diallo out for personal reasons. Those absences narrow Denver’s options without telling us exactly how replacement minutes will be allocated.

New Orleans Pelicans outlook

New Orleans has a credible route to an upset despite its 0-3 start. Scoring 135 against Denver and building a 23-point advantage showed that the Pelicans could put this opponent under pressure. Losing that lead is equally relevant. The result supports their ability to compete offensively, while leaving a serious question about protecting an advantage against the Nuggets.

Zion Williamson is averaging 20.7 points through three games, Dejounte Murray is averaging 6.3 assists, and Trey Murphy III is contributing 15.3 points, 5.3 rebounds and 2.7 assists. Those contributions give New Orleans several ways to stay involved. They also explain why Denver’s defensive performance against Golden State matters here: the Pelicans have already demonstrated scoring potential against the visitors.

Missi is out with a left knee contusion/bone bruise, while Poole is probable with an illness on the official morning report. Probable leaves room for a change in status. Last season, New Orleans averaged 115.5 points and 25.1 assists and shot 34.7% from three. That shooting percentage trails Denver’s prior-season mark, giving the visitors another modest advantage in the forecast. It is background context, however, rather than a prediction of either team’s shooting tonight.

Key matchup factors

The central question is whether Denver can turn its offensive advantage into enough stops. The previous meeting supplied evidence for both teams’ scoring, but a six-point Denver win offers limited comfort at a five-point spread. Missi’s absence adds uncertainty for New Orleans; Denver’s own injury list keeps that personnel comparison from becoming a decisive edge.

SportsJaw’s October 28 snapshot, updated at 00:32 UTC, showed 67% community support for Denver -5 (-110). Qualified handicappers also favored that selection at 67%. Those figures describe separate groups’ preferences, not Denver’s probability of winning or covering. They reinforce the popular side without strengthening the basketball case enough to justify a wager.

Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans spread prediction

Spread recommendation: Pass on Denver Nuggets -5 (-110) and New Orleans Pelicans +5 (-109). The projected five-point Denver victory would push either spread. More importantly, Denver’s defensive inconsistency leaves too little separation between a plausible win and a cover.

Fade the Public Analytics reported 70% of spread tickets and 63% of spread money on Denver at its 10:00 a.m. UTC snapshot, priced at -4.5. That is a separate price snapshot, not evidence of line movement. Denver’s popularity is no automatic argument for taking New Orleans.

Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans total prediction

Total recommendation: Pass on Over 240.5 (-110) and Under 240.5 (-110). The previous meeting’s 276 points and Denver’s recent defensive lapse argue against confidently backing the Under. Still, one high-scoring meeting is a fragile foundation for expecting another.

The projection totals 241, just half a point above the line. SportsJaw’s community favored Under 240.5 (-110) at 75%, as did qualified handicappers separately. The external 10:00 a.m. UTC snapshot instead showed 66% of tickets and 69% of money on the Over. Neither preference supplies the missing scoring edge.

Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans projected score

Game forecast: Nuggets 123, Pelicans 118. Denver’s prior-season offensive advantage, Jokić’s current assist production and Jamal Murray’s scoring make the visitors the pick. The score anticipates less scoring than the previous meeting while still allowing both offenses a productive night.

The strongest counterargument is New Orleans’ ability to exploit Denver’s defense, demonstrated by its 135 points in that meeting. Denver’s injuries add another reason to keep confidence low. A five-point projected margin and a 241-point combined score sit too close to the supplied lines to justify either wager. The spread recommendation is Pass, the total recommendation is Pass, and the single official SportsJaw betting lean is Pass.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

Nuggets123

Pelicans118

Projected winner Denver NuggetsConfidencelow
Pick on the Spread

Published pick: Pass on Denver Nuggets -5 (-110) and New Orleans Pelicans +5 (-109).

Pick on the Total

Published pick: Pass on Over 240.5 (-110) and Under 240.5 (-110).

Sources

  • NBANBA Injury Report: October 28, 2026, 7:15 AM ET
  • Fubo NewsDenver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans - Where to Watch, Stream Info, TV Channel, and Live Updates (October 28, 2026)
  • iHeart SportsNuggets vs. Pelicans Injury Report – Oct. 28

SportsJaw Nuggets vs Pelicans game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Nuggets vs Pelicans matchups or learn how our predictions work.

Current matchup data

Lines, trends and availability

Crowd vs qualified handicappers

Spread crowd
Denver Nuggets -5 (-110) · 67%
Spread qualified handicappers
Denver Nuggets -5 (-110) · 67%
Total crowd
Under 240.5 (-110) · 75%
Total qualified handicappers
Under 240.5 (-110) · 75%
Qualified handicappers need at least 20 graded picks and a 52.5% win rate. A market needs at least three current qualified picks. Selection share is not a win probability.

Line movement since open

  • Moneyline · Denver Nuggets-178 → -194Moved
  • Moneyline · New Orleans Pelicans+170 → +169Moved
  • Spread · Denver Nuggets-4.5 (-110) → -5 (-110)Moved
  • Spread · New Orleans Pelicans+4.5 (-110) → +5 (-109)Moved
  • Total · Over238.5 (-115) → 240.5 (-110)Moved
  • Total · Under238.5 (-105) → 240.5 (-110)Moved

ATS and O/U trends

Denver Nuggets
1-2 matchup record · 3-7-0 ATS · 5-5-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file
New Orleans Pelicans
0-3 matchup record · 6-2-2 ATS · 4-5-1 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file

Injuries and availability

From the published research (2026-10-28T12:00:11.018Z). Availability may have changed; review the cited sources.

Availability: Cameron Johnson is doubtful and Yves Missi is out. Jordan Poole is probable.

The immediate concern is defense. Fubo reports that Denver allowed 74 second-half points in its most recent game, a blowout loss to Golden State. Availability adds uncertainty: the NBA’s morning report lists Johnson doubtful with a right ankle sprain, Julian Strawther out with a left knee sprain, Spencer Jones out for bilateral hamstring injury management and Alpha Diallo out for personal reasons. Those absences narrow Denver’s options without telling us exactly how replacement minutes will be allocated.

The central question is whether Denver can turn its offensive advantage into enough stops. The previous meeting supplied evidence for both teams’ scoring, but a six-point Denver win offers limited comfort at a five-point spread. Missi’s absence adds uncertainty for New Orleans; Denver’s own injury list keeps that personnel comparison from becoming a decisive edge.

Recent head-to-head

  • 2026-10-24New Orleans Pelicans 135 · Denver Nuggets 141
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