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NBA PicksWed 9:30 PM ET
Oklahoma City Thunder logo
Oklahoma City
Thunder
4-0
versus
Dallas Mavericks logo
Dallas
Mavericks
2-2
NBA · Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks

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Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks Predictions Today

Game time: October 28, 2026 at 9:30 PM ET

Venue: American Airlines Center — Dallas, TX

Article updated Oct 28, 8:39 AM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

Oklahoma City will beat Dallas 116-113, with Monday’s 125-point performance offering the strongest recent reason to trust the Thunder’s offense despite their injuries. Last season’s sweep adds support, although both rotations face significant availability questions. Neither Oklahoma City -6 (-110) nor the total of 229 offers a convincing betting edge. The official SportsJaw wager is Pass, with low confidence in the forecast.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks prediction and best bet

The Thunder get the win in this forecast, but their injury list makes a comfortable margin difficult to trust. Oklahoma City beat Phoenix 125-114 on Monday, with Ajay Mitchell scoring a career-high 30 points. That is encouraging evidence of offensive production while short-handed, although Mitchell is now questionable himself.

Dallas brings a four-point win over Miami and a productive Cooper Flagg performance into this matchup. Those results favor a competitive game more than an easy Thunder cover. Oklahoma City’s three-game sweep last season helps break the tie in the winner forecast, but the current personnel questions deserve greater weight when judging the price. Pass is the best betting decision.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Game: Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks, Wednesday, October 28, 2026, in the 2026-27 NBA season.

Tipoff: 9:30 p.m. ET, according to the NBA’s official injury report.

SportsJaw odds: Oklahoma City Thunder -6 (-110); Dallas Mavericks +6 (-110). Moneyline: Oklahoma City Thunder -226; Dallas Mavericks +189. Total: Over 229 (-110); Under 229 (-110).

SportsJaw moneyline: Oklahoma City -226; Dallas +189.

21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Picks are opinions, not guarantees. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

SportsJaw total: Over 229 (-110); Under 229 (-110).

Latest results: Oklahoma City beat Phoenix 125-114 on Monday. Dallas beat Miami by four points that same day. Both teams enter this meeting with multiple players ruled out and additional availability questions.

Oklahoma City Thunder outlook

Monday’s Phoenix win is the clearest recent argument for picking Oklahoma City. The Thunder scored 125 points, and Mitchell supplied 30 of them in a career-best scoring performance. That result gives the forecast something more concrete than last season’s head-to-head record: Oklahoma City just won while dealing with injuries.

Repeating that production is a different challenge. The NBA’s Wednesday morning report lists Mitchell as questionable with a right-ankle sprain. His status matters particularly after such a large scoring contribution. It would be aggressive to build another high-scoring forecast around him without knowing whether he will play.

Jalen Williams is out with a left-ankle fracture, Cason Wallace with a left-shoulder labral tear, Chet Holmgren with right-knee patellar tendinitis and Alex Caruso with a right-ankle sprain. Thomas Sorber is out after right-knee surgery, and Nikola Topic is out after low-back surgery.

That list is the main restraint on the Thunder forecast. Their three wins against Dallas last season support the selection, but those results are a limited guide to this particular lineup. Monday’s offense earns Oklahoma City the nod; the absences keep the projected winning margin modest and confidence low.

Dallas Mavericks outlook

Flagg gives Dallas its strongest recent argument for an upset. He recorded 29 points, 11 assists and five steals in Monday’s four-point win over Miami. The scoring and assists are especially relevant to this forecast because they show Dallas received both individual production and playmaking from him in its latest victory.

His previous results against Oklahoma City point the other way. In two appearances against the Thunder last season, Flagg averaged 9.0 points, 2.0 rebounds and 1.0 assists. Two games are too few to define the matchup permanently, particularly with Oklahoma City’s current absences. Still, that history tempers expectations of another performance like Monday’s.

Dallas also has its own substantial injury uncertainty. Kyrie Irving is questionable for left-knee injury management, Naji Marshall is questionable with illness and Caleb Martin is questionable with a right-thumb sprain. Dereck Lively II is out with a right-foot injury, while Sergio De Larrea is out with a right-knee injury.

Santi Aldama is doubtful following right-knee surgery, and Tarik Biberovic is doubtful with right-heel bursitis. Dallas therefore cannot be treated as a healthy alternative to an injured favorite. Flagg’s latest performance makes a close finish plausible, but the unsettled supporting cast reduces enthusiasm for backing the Mavericks.

Key matchup factors

The central question is how much of Monday’s production carries forward. Mitchell’s questionable status complicates Oklahoma City’s scoring outlook, while Flagg must translate his strong Miami performance into a matchup that troubled him last season. These are reasons for a narrow forecast rather than a large projected advantage.

Crowd preference favors Oklahoma City. Fade the Public Analytics reported 78% of spread tickets and 77% of spread money on the Thunder at 10:00 a.m. UTC. Separately, SportsJaw’s community snapshot at approximately 12:32 a.m. UTC listed Oklahoma City -6 (-110) as its spread leader at 50%, an even split. Neither measure is a win probability, and neither makes Dallas an automatic value play.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks spread prediction

Pass on Oklahoma City Thunder -6 (-110) and Dallas Mavericks +6 (-110). The 116-113 forecast places Dallas inside the spread, but a projected three-point margin is not enough by itself to justify a wager.

Oklahoma City’s absences make laying six uncomfortable. Dallas’s own injury list and last season’s three losses in this matchup weaken the case for taking the points. With Mitchell and several Mavericks questionable, the balance could change materially with availability. The forecast favors a close Thunder victory; neither spread side earns an official recommendation at the supplied price.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks total prediction

Pass on Over 229 (-110) and Under 229 (-110). The projected 229 points land directly on the supplied total. Oklahoma City’s recent 125-point outing and Flagg’s performance offer an Over argument, while the absences and questionable players complicate expectations for repeat production.

SportsJaw’s community total leader was Over 229 (-110) at 100%, updated at approximately 12:31 a.m. UTC. Separately, the 10:00 a.m. UTC betting-splits snapshot showed 74% of total tickets and 68% of total money on the Over. Those preferences do not strengthen the scoring evidence enough to warrant a bet.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks projected score

Game forecast: Oklahoma City Thunder 116, Dallas Mavericks 113. Monday’s offensive performance and last season’s sweep give Oklahoma City the slight edge. The strongest counterargument is Dallas’s recent win behind Flagg’s 29 points and 11 assists, combined with the Thunder’s lengthy list of confirmed absences.

Confidence is low because Mitchell’s availability and Dallas’s unresolved injury statuses leave considerable uncertainty around the players who will determine this game. The three-point forecast reflects that uncertainty without abandoning a winner. Dallas falls inside +6 in the projection, and the combined score matches 229, but neither market offers a persuasive betting advantage. The single official SportsJaw wager is Pass.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

Thunder116

Mavericks113

Projected winner Oklahoma City ThunderConfidencelow
Pick on the Spread

Published pick: Pass on Oklahoma City Thunder -6 (-110) and Dallas Mavericks +6 (-110).

Pick on the Total

Published pick: Pass on Over 229 (-110) and Under 229 (-110).

Sources

  • CBS Sports / Field Level MediaCooper Flagg, Mavericks host unbeaten, banged-up Thunder
  • NBA OfficialInjury Report: 10/28/26 07:45 AM
  • Fade the Public AnalyticsThunder vs. Mavericks Public Betting Percentages, Oct 28

SportsJaw Thunder vs Mavericks game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Thunder vs Mavericks matchups or learn how our predictions work.

Current matchup data

Lines, trends and availability

Crowd vs qualified handicappers

Spread crowd
Oklahoma City Thunder -6 (-110) · 50%
Spread qualified handicappers
Insufficient qualified picks
Total crowd
Over 229 (-110) · 100%
Total qualified handicappers
Insufficient qualified picks
Qualified handicappers need at least 20 graded picks and a 52.5% win rate. A market needs at least three current qualified picks. Selection share is not a win probability.

Line movement since open

  • Moneyline · Oklahoma City Thunder-317 → -226Moved
  • Moneyline · Dallas Mavericks+285 → +189Moved
  • Spread · Oklahoma City Thunder-5.5 (-118) → -6 (-110)Moved
  • Spread · Dallas Mavericks+5.5 (-102) → +6 (-110)Moved
  • Total · Over227 (-105) → 229 (-110)Moved
  • Total · Under227 (-115) → 229 (-110)Moved

ATS and O/U trends

Oklahoma City Thunder
4-0 matchup record · 6-4-0 ATS · 5-5-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file
Dallas Mavericks
2-2 matchup record · 5-5-0 ATS · 5-5-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file

Injuries and availability

From the published research (2026-10-28T12:39:40.069Z). Availability may have changed; review the cited sources.

The Thunder get the win in this forecast, but their injury list makes a comfortable margin difficult to trust. Oklahoma City beat Phoenix 125-114 on Monday, with Ajay Mitchell scoring a career-high 30 points. That is encouraging evidence of offensive production while short-handed, although Mitchell is now questionable himself.

Tipoff: 9:30 p.m. ET, according to the NBA’s official injury report.

Latest results: Oklahoma City beat Phoenix 125-114 on Monday. Dallas beat Miami by four points that same day. Both teams enter this meeting with multiple players ruled out and additional availability questions.

Recent head-to-head

  • 2026-03-01Oklahoma City Thunder 100 · Dallas Mavericks 87
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