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NCAAF PicksSat 1:00 PM ET
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2-4
NCAAF · Baylor Bears at Kansas Jayhawks

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Baylor Bears vs Kansas Jayhawks Predictions October 24, 2026

Game time: October 24, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET

Venue: David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium — Lawrence, KS

Article updated Oct 20, 8:30 AM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

Baylor will beat Kansas 24-20, with its run defense providing the strongest reason to favor the Bears against the Jayhawks' productive rushing attack. Baylor's offensive struggles make laying three points less appealing than backing a lower-scoring game. Under 53.5 (-110) is the strongest SportsJaw wager at the supplied prices, while both sides of the spread are a Pass.

Baylor Bears vs Kansas Jayhawks prediction and best bet

Baylor's defense gives the Bears the edge in this Big 12 matchup. They enter allowing 14.7 points and 86.7 rushing yards per game, a compelling foundation against a Kansas offense averaging 207.2 yards on the ground. The forecast is Baylor 24, Kansas 20, with Under 53.5 (-110) the best bet.

The distinction between picking Baylor and backing its spread matters here. The Bears scored only six points against TCU last week, and Kansas brings a pass defense that could complicate their recovery. Baylor can win through defensive control without producing the offensive performance needed to make a road cover comfortable.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Game time: Saturday, Oct. 24, 2026, at 12 p.m. CT, also listed as 1 p.m. EDT.

Venue: David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium in Lawrence, Kansas.

Broadcast: TNT.

Records and recent form: Baylor is 4-2 overall and 2-1 in Big 12 play, with four wins in its previous five games. Kansas is 2-4 overall, 0-3 in conference play and 2-1 at home. This is Kansas's 114th Homecoming game; the Jayhawks have won their previous four Homecoming games.

SportsJaw odds: Baylor Bears -3 (-107); Kansas Jayhawks +3 (-109). Moneyline: Baylor Bears -145; Kansas Jayhawks +125. Total: Over 53.5 (-110); Under 53.5 (-110).

21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Picks are opinions, not guarantees. Past results do not predict future outcomes.

Baylor Bears outlook

Baylor's 17-6 loss to TCU exposed problems that matter against Kansas. DJ Lagway completed 22 of 53 passes for 256 yards, with no touchdowns and one interception. The Bears finished with 310 total yards, surrendered four sacks and rushed for a season-low 54 yards at 1.6 yards per carry. Coach Dave Aranda also pointed to four offensive-line penalties on the final drive.

The broader offensive numbers offer a better picture than that result alone. Baylor averages 436.2 total yards and 286 passing yards per game. Lagway averages 279 passing yards, with eight touchdown passes and three interceptions, while Gavin Freeman has 49 catches for 555 yards and two touchdowns. Freeman contributed seven catches for 76 yards against TCU.

Turning that production into points remains a concern. Baylor ranks 119th in FBS red-zone offense, scoring on 75% of its trips. Its defense has been more consistent: six consecutive opponents have scored 20 points or fewer, Baylor's longest such streak since 1965. Even in defeat last week, the Bears generated four sacks and 10 tackles for loss.

Kansas Jayhawks outlook

Kansas's offense averages 449.7 total yards per game, with Isaiah Marshall offering a running threat alongside Dylan Edwards. Marshall has 1,294 passing yards, nine passing touchdowns and five interceptions, plus 372 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown. Edwards has gained 375 yards and scored four touchdowns on 75 carries.

Marshall's mobility was especially useful in the 35-24 loss at Kansas State on Oct. 17. He rushed for 117 yards, although his passing line was 12 completions in 26 attempts for 151 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Edwards added 57 rushing yards and a touchdown. Receiver Nik McMillan enters this matchup with 23 catches for 400 yards and four scores.

The Jayhawks' pass defense gives them a credible way to challenge Baylor. Kansas allows 174.3 passing yards per game, third in the Big 12. Its red-zone defense ranks 38th, allowing opponents to score on 78.3% of their trips. Those figures make Baylor's passing production less persuasive as a reason to expect an easy win.

Key matchup factors

The central question is whether Kansas can keep its running game productive against Baylor's front. The Bears limited TCU to 33 net rushing yards and 1.1 yards per carry. Kansas presents a different assignment: Baylor defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman highlighted its varied rushing looks and Edwards's threat in zone-blocking schemes. Containing the back while accounting for Marshall is the challenge.

Drive finishing could separate a Baylor win from a Baylor cover. Kansas's red-zone defense meets an offense that has struggled to convert scoring opportunities. That pairing favors a tighter margin and strengthens the Under case, even if Lagway moves the ball more effectively than he did last week.

As of Oct. 20 at 12:12 UTC, the combined consensus favors Baylor -145 on the moneyline at 67%, with modeled equivalent counts of 402 for Baylor and 198 for Kansas. The spread sits at 50%, or 300 selections per side. These counts combine a modeled sportsbook sample with SportsJaw participation; they are not observed sportsbook tickets, member-only totals or game-win probabilities.

Baylor Bears vs Kansas Jayhawks spread prediction

Pass on Baylor -3 (-108) and Kansas +3 (-112). The projected four-point Baylor victory puts the Bears just beyond the spread, but that narrow cushion is sensitive to the offensive problems seen against TCU. Kansas's pass defense and Marshall's ability to create rushing yards keep the upset possibility meaningful.

Taking Kansas requires confidence that its offense can sustain drives against Baylor's defensive strength. Laying the points requires confidence in Baylor's offensive rebound. Neither side offers enough separation at these prices. The straight-up selection remains Baylor, while the spread recommendation is Pass.

Baylor Bears vs Kansas Jayhawks total prediction

Under 53.5 (-110) is the recommendation and the official SportsJaw wager. Baylor's season-long scoring defense, its recent disruption against TCU and Kansas's pass-defense numbers all point toward resistance on both sides. Baylor's red-zone difficulties provide another reason to expect yards without a matching volume of points.

The strongest counterargument is offensive production: both teams average more than 430 total yards per game. Marshall's mobility and Baylor's passing weapons give either offense a route to exceeding this forecast. Even so, the projected 44 points leave a more useful cushion below 53.5 than the projected margin offers against the spread. Total pick: Under 53.5 (-110).

Baylor Bears vs Kansas Jayhawks projected score

Game forecast: Baylor Bears 24, Kansas Jayhawks 20. Confidence is medium. Baylor's defense supplies the clearest sustained advantage, but another inefficient offensive performance could turn the game toward Kansas. The Jayhawks' rushing options make that a material risk, especially if Marshall escapes containment.

Expect Baylor to do enough offensively while limiting Kansas's preferred route to production. The single official wager is Under 53.5 (-110). Both Baylor -3 (-108) and Kansas +3 (-112) remain Pass recommendations.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

Bears24

Jayhawks20

Projected winner Baylor BearsConfidencemedium
Pick on the Spread

Published pick: Pass on Baylor -3 (-108) and Kansas +3 (-112)

Pick on the Total

Published pick: Under 53.5 (-110)

Sources

  • Baylor AthleticsFB Ventures to Lawrence to Face Kansas
  • Baylor AthleticsThree Takeaways: October 19
  • University of Kansas AthleticsJayhawks to Host Bears for 114th Homecoming Game

SportsJaw Bears vs Jayhawks game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Bears vs Jayhawks matchups or learn how our predictions work.

Current matchup data

Lines, trends and availability

Crowd vs qualified handicappers

Total crowd
Under 53.5 (-110) · 100%
Total qualified handicappers
Insufficient qualified picks
Qualified handicappers need at least 20 graded picks and a 52.5% win rate. A market needs at least three current qualified picks. Selection share is not a win probability.

Line movement since open

  • Moneyline · Baylor Bears-148 → -145Moved
  • Moneyline · Kansas Jayhawks+120 → +125Moved
  • Spread · Baylor Bears-2.5 (-117) → -3 (-107)Moved
  • Spread · Kansas Jayhawks+2.5 (-105) → +3 (-109)Moved
  • Total · Over54.5 (-106) → 53.5 (-110)Moved
  • Total · Under54.5 (-115) → 53.5 (-110)Moved

ATS and O/U trends

Baylor Bears
3-2 matchup record · 4-6-0 ATS · 3-7-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file
Kansas Jayhawks
2-4 matchup record · 4-6-0 ATS · 6-4-0 O/U
Last 10 completed games on file

Injuries and availability

From the published research (2026-10-20T03:50:15.817Z). Availability may have changed; review the cited sources.

No verified injury or availability note was included in the published matchup research.

Recent head-to-head

  • 2024-11-30Kansas Jayhawks 17 · Baylor Bears 45
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