New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Predictions October 4, 2026
The Buffalo Bills will beat the New England Patriots, with a projected score of Buffalo 31, New England 17. Buffalo's productive pass rush gets the strongest matchup advantage against Drake Maye's early turnover struggles. Bills -7 (-105) offers an actionable spread wager at the supplied price. The total of 50 (-110 each way) is a Pass despite the 48-point forecast.
New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills prediction and best bet
Buffalo Bills -7 (-105) is the best bet because the defensive matchup offers a credible route to a win by more than a touchdown. Buffalo recorded nine sacks and 36 quarterback pressures through three weeks. Maye threw six interceptions and lost a fumble over his first three starts, creating an obvious concern against that rush.
New England's absences strengthen the case for Buffalo to pull away. Christian Gonzalez and Christian Barmore are out, leaving the Patriots with defensive personnel to replace while their offense tries to recover from a six-point performance. The forecast is Buffalo 31, New England 17, with medium confidence. Buffalo's own injuries keep the spread recommendation from carrying stronger conviction.
Odds, game time and how to watch
Game: New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills, Week 4 of the 2026 NFL season.
Kickoff: Sunday, October 4, 2026, at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Venue: Highmark Stadium.
Broadcast: CBS, with Ian Eagle, Ross Tucker and Evan Washburn.
Records: New England 1-2; Buffalo 3-0. This is Buffalo's first AFC East matchup of the season.
SportsJaw spreads: New England +7 (-115); Buffalo -7 (-105). Moneylines: New England +263; Buffalo -325. Total: Over 50 (-110); Under 50 (-110).