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NCAAF MatchupsSat 12:00 PM ET
Wake Forest
Demon Deacons
2-1
versus
Louisville
Cardinals
2-1
NCAAF · WAKE at LOUISV

Your Picks on Wake Forest vs Louisville

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Wake Forest vs Louisville consensus picks

WAKE16%
84%LOUISV

Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs Louisville Cardinals Predictions

Game time: September 26, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET

Venue: L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium — Louisville, KY

Article updated Sep 22, 2:04 AM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

Louisville’s balanced offense makes a persuasive case, but Wake Forest’s passing production complicates the price of backing the Cardinals.

Matchup overview

Louisville’s rushing performance against SMU supplies the strongest angle for its September 26, 2026, college football matchup with Wake Forest. The Cardinals gained 265 yards on the ground in a 41-31 victory, complementing the consecutive 300-yard passing games Lincoln Kienholz delivered to open the season. Wake Forest counters with Gio Lopez, who threw for 312 yards against Miami. This Week 4 ACC meeting, the programs’ first since 2022, presents a credible Louisville advantage without an equally clear case for laying 12.5 points.

At a glance

Game: Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Louisville Cardinals, September 26, 2026. College football, ACC.

Records: Both teams are 2-1 overall. Louisville is 1-0 in conference play after beating SMU 41-31; Wake Forest is 0-1 after losing 33-20 to Miami.

SportsJaw moneyline: Wake Forest +383; Louisville -500.

SportsJaw spread: Wake Forest +12.5 (-110); Louisville -12.5 (-110).

SportsJaw total: Over 58.5 (-110); under 58.5 (-110).

Recent opposition: Louisville beat No. 16 SMU, while Wake Forest’s defeat came against No. 5 Miami.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons outlook

Wake Forest’s best argument starts with Lopez and a passing game that produced against Miami despite the defeat. He completed 29 of 46 attempts for 312 yards and three touchdowns. Through three games, his totals stood at 887 passing yards, seven touchdown passes and one interception, with a 62.9% completion rate. That interception count supports some confidence in his decision-making, although it does not establish the ball security of the entire offense.

The distribution against Miami also matters. Eleven players caught passes from Lopez, giving Louisville several recent contributors to prepare for. Carlos Hernandez finished with 10 receptions for 69 yards and a touchdown, while Jack Foley gained 118 yards on six catches and scored. Those performances supplied different kinds of production: Hernandez accumulated catches, and Foley generated substantially more yardage from fewer receptions.

Tight end Kamrean Johnson added a 10-yard touchdown reception to finish an 11-play, 75-yard first-quarter possession. That drive is a useful example of Wake Forest sustaining an attack rather than relying entirely on isolated gains. Still, the Deacons finished with 20 points and a loss. Passing yardage alone is insufficient reason to expect them to match Louisville possession for possession.

Defensively, Aiden Hall recorded nine tackles against Miami, and Deuce Blades II led the team with five solo stops. Langston Hardy contributed a sack. Those individual efforts identify players capable of making plays, but they do not establish that Wake Forest can contain the rushing attack Louisville displayed against SMU.

Louisville Cardinals outlook

Louisville’s offensive case rests on its ability to produce through different approaches. After Kienholz passed for 300 yards in each of the first two games, the Cardinals leaned heavily on their runners against SMU. They finished with 442 total yards, including 265 rushing yards. That gives Wake Forest more than one productive aspect of the offense to address, although one strong rushing game cannot settle this matchup by itself.

Keyjuan Brown led the ground attack with a career-high 163 yards and two touchdowns on 10 carries. Isaac Brown supplied 67 yards on another 10 attempts and scored his first touchdown of the season. Kienholz added 42 rushing yards and a touchdown on 12 carries, providing another contributor beyond the two backs.

Kienholz completed 14 of 23 passes for 177 yards without an interception. Lawayne McCoy caught four passes for 62 yards, including a 33-yard touchdown, his third score of the season. Louisville also went a second consecutive game without allowing a sack and remained turnover-free through three games. Those are meaningful strengths, even though neither streak guarantees another clean performance.

The defensive assessment is more mixed. Kaleb Beasley registered 10 tackles and two interceptions, with one takeaway arriving inside the final two minutes. Clev Lubin contributed 1.5 sacks and two quarterback hurries. Louisville held SMU below its season averages in total offense and passing yards, yet still conceded 31 points. That combination supports respect for its defensive playmakers while leaving room for Wake Forest to score.

Key matchup factors

Discipline could materially change the value of otherwise productive possessions. Louisville averages 94.0 penalty yards per game, and Wake Forest averages 95.7, placing both among the ACC’s most penalized teams. The similarity matters: penalties are a concern for the favorite as well as the underdog, so they cannot fairly serve as a one-sided argument for Louisville.

Wake Forest’s Miami game illustrates the cost. A holding penalty on a fourth-quarter punt return left the Deacons at their own 10 while trailing 31-20. Another costly penalty could make a comeback harder; Louisville penalties could likewise interrupt the drives it needs to build a substantial margin.

The schedule adds context without supplying a precise adjustment. Louisville faced two ranked opponents in its first three games, losing its opener to Ole Miss before beating SMU. Wake Forest’s latest loss came against a fifth-ranked Miami team. Those opponents help explain why neither the Cardinals’ points allowed nor the Deacons’ defeat should be treated as a complete measure of team quality. They also leave uncertainty about how these recent performances translate into Saturday’s margin.

Prediction

Pass. Louisville has the stronger case on offensive balance, protection and recent ball security, but those advantages do not establish sufficient value at Louisville -12.5 (-110). Beating a ranked SMU team is meaningful; turning that result into a forecast of a comfortable win over Wake Forest requires more certainty about the matchup than these performances provide.

The strongest counterargument to passing is Louisville’s ability to win through either its passing game or its runners. If that flexibility carries over, the Cardinals could build a substantial lead. Wake Forest’s response is also credible, however: Lopez just produced 312 passing yards against Miami, and Louisville allowed SMU 31 points. Neither observation settles the spread.

Louisville moneyline -500 carries a substantial price, while Wake Forest moneyline +383 and spread +12.5 (-110) need more than doubts about the favorite to justify a selection. The same uncertainty prevents a recommendation on over 58.5 (-110) or under 58.5 (-110). With no supported pricing edge, the recommendation is to pass and leave the projected winner and score unset.

ConfidenceSlight lean
SportsJaw pick

Pass

Sources

  • AOL / Louisville Courier JournalStorylines, players to watch in Louisville's ACC game vs Wake Forest
  • Wake Forest AthleticsWake Forest’s Second-Half Comeback Attempt Falls Short to No. 5 Miami on Friday Night
  • University of Louisville AthleticsLouisville Football Postgame Notes vs. SMU

SportsJaw Demon Deacons vs Cardinals game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Demon Deacons vs Cardinals matchups or learn how our predictions work.

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