Wisconsin Badgers vs Penn St. Nittany Lions Predictions
Both offenses produced big numbers on September 19, but those results offer limited grounds for backing Penn State at -10 or a total of 46.
The matchup
Wisconsin visits Penn State at Beaver Stadium on September 26 for the Nittany Lions’ 2026 Homecoming football game. Penn State enters Big Ten play at 3-0, while Wisconsin arrives at 2-1 for its conference opener.
SportsJaw lists Penn State at -400 on the moneyline and -10 (-105), with Wisconsin at +300 and +10 (-115). The total is 46, with over 46 (-105) and under 46 (-115).
Production meets defensive counterevidence
Penn State beat Buffalo 55-13 on September 19, producing 573 yards, including 304 rushing yards. Rocco Becht threw for 212 yards and two touchdowns, and the offense generated seven plays of at least 20 yards. That combination supports a case for Penn State to threaten Wisconsin through multiple routes.
Wisconsin’s 54-10 victory over Eastern Michigan supplied its own offensive argument. Colton Joseph passed for 362 yards and accounted for four touchdowns. Tyrell Henry caught 14 passes for 160 yards and a touchdown. However, Wisconsin managed 117 rushing yards on 30 carries.
The defensive results complicate an over recommendation. Penn State allowed Buffalo only 173 total yards, while Wisconsin forced three turnovers against Eastern Michigan. Those performances came against different opponents and do not establish how either defense will handle this matchup.
Final decision: Pass
Wisconsin played its latest game without running back Abu Sama III. His availability for Penn State is not established here, leaving another uncertainty in assessing the Badgers’ rushing options.