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NCAAF MatchupsSat 2:00 PM ET
Notre Dame
Fighting Irish
2-0
versus
Purdue
Boilermakers
1-2
NCAAF · NOTRD at PURDUE

Your Picks on Notre Dame vs Purdue

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Notre Dame vs Purdue consensus picks

NOTRD87%
13%PURDUE

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Purdue Boilermakers Predictions

Game time: September 26, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET

Venue: Ross-Ade Stadium — West Lafayette, IN

Article updated Sep 22, 2:23 AM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

Notre Dame’s defensive results favor the Irish, while Purdue’s passing production makes the four-touchdown spread a separate question from which team has the stronger record.

Matchup overview

Purdue’s passing production against Notre Dame’s defensive results is the central matchup in this September 26, 2026 college football meeting for the Shillelagh Trophy. The Boilermakers average 377 passing yards per game, ranked second nationally in the Indianapolis Star report, while the Fighting Irish allow 193 total yards per game. No. 3 Notre Dame brings a 3-0 record to a Purdue team sitting at 1-2. Those results support an Irish advantage, but SportsJaw’s 28-point spread asks considerably more than simply identifying the stronger team.

At a glance

Kickoff: Saturday, September 26, 2026, at 2 p.m. ET.

Venue: Ross-Ade Stadium, West Lafayette, Indiana.

Broadcast: Peacock.

Records: No. 3 Notre Dame is 3-0, with three straight wins; Purdue is 1-2 after consecutive losses. Against the spread, Notre Dame is 2-1 and Purdue is 1-2.

Depth chart: C.J. Carr leads Notre Dame’s quarterback listing; Aneyas Williams or Nolan James Jr. lead its running-back listing.

SportsJaw moneyline: Notre Dame -5,000; Purdue +1,500. Spread: Notre Dame -28 (-104); Purdue +28 (-112). Total: over 57.5 (-110) or under 57.5 (-110).

Notre Dame Fighting Irish outlook

Notre Dame’s latest result was a 27-10 victory over Michigan State. Through three games, its defense has allowed 193 yards per game and collected nine takeaways, while the offense has committed no giveaways. That is a strong opening record of limiting yardage and protecting possessions. It supports confidence in the Irish’s overall performance, although three games cannot establish that the same turnover results will continue against Purdue.

Carr has completed 72.6% of his passes for 726 yards and six touchdowns. His efficiency gives Notre Dame a passing option against a Purdue defense whose problems extend beyond one narrow area. The Irish do not need an assumption about a dramatic increase in passing volume to identify an opportunity here: Purdue’s reported allowance of 528 total yards per game already describes substantial defensive difficulty.

Jordan Faison and Micah Gilbert each have 13 receptions, with three touchdown catches between them. Both appear as first-team receivers on the Purdue-week depth chart. Williams and James have three touchdowns apiece, and their shared position atop the running-back listing leaves both relevant to the offensive comparison. Purdue’s allowance of 277.5 rushing yards per game makes that backfield especially interesting.

The distinction is between a favorable matchup and a dependable winning margin. Notre Dame has productive personnel and strong defensive results, but its latest victory came by 17 points. That result does not forecast this game; it illustrates why an unbeaten record alone cannot settle a 28-point spread.

Purdue Boilermakers outlook

Purdue’s 1-2 record contains substantial scoring alongside disappointing results. The Boilermakers opened with a 44-19 win over Indiana State, lost 38-36 to Wake Forest in double overtime, then fell 52-38 at UCLA on September 19. They have scored at least 36 points in each game. The overtime setting matters when interpreting the Wake Forest total, and those scores do not establish what Purdue will produce against Notre Dame.

Quarterback Ryan Browne offers the strongest individual argument for offensive resistance. He has completed 73.3% of his passes for 1,024 yards, seven touchdowns and one interception. Receiver Asaad Waseem has supplied 20 catches for 321 yards and a touchdown. Together, those figures explain why Purdue’s passing game deserves attention despite consecutive losses. Browne’s low interception count also provides a counterpoint to Notre Dame’s takeaway production.

Fame Ijeboi has 248 rushing yards, a 4.5-yard average and four touchdowns. His production gives Purdue a contributor beyond Browne and Waseem, though it does not prove that the running game can dictate this matchup. Maintaining a useful rushing option would help Purdue avoid depending entirely on passing success against a defense that has limited total yardage.

The larger weakness is defensive. Purdue allows 528 yards per game, including 277.5 on the ground, and has generated no takeaways. Its offense has not overcome those difficulties in the past two games. Backing Purdue simply because it receives four touchdowns would understate that problem: the defense must supply enough resistance for its scoring to matter against the spread.

Key matchup factors

Notre Dame’s September 21 depth chart introduces personnel uncertainty. Safety Luke Talich is questionable with a wrist injury. Offensive linemen Matty Augustine, Charles Jagusah and Chris Terek are out, as are defensive linemen Chris Burgess Jr., Tiki Hola and Jason Onye. Safety Brauntaee Johnson, receiver Quincy Porter and cornerback Chaz Smith are also out. These absences warrant caution, but the listings do not quantify their effect on Saturday’s margin.

Leonard Moore and DJ McKinney are listed as Notre Dame’s first-team cornerbacks. For Purdue, defensive back Mister Clark missed the UCLA game. That absence does not establish whether he will play against Notre Dame, so it cannot be treated as a confirmed loss for this matchup.

BetMGM’s September 20 opening spread was Notre Dame -27 (-108), with Purdue +27 (-110). SportsJaw supplies a different price at 28 points. These are separate sportsbook observations, not proof of movement within SportsJaw’s market or evidence of who placed bets. Both listed totals are 57.5.

Prediction

Pass is the betting decision. Notre Dame has the stronger supported overall profile, particularly on defense, and Purdue’s rushing-yard allowance creates an obvious concern against the Irish backfield. The strongest counterargument to laying Notre Dame -28 (-104) is Purdue’s productive passing attack, supported by Browne’s completion rate and limited interceptions. Notre Dame’s injury list adds uncertainty without establishing how many points those absences should be worth.

The Notre Dame -5,000 moneyline requires a success rate above 98% to break even before considering any independent estimate of its chances. The available results do not establish that probability. Purdue +1,500 offers a much larger return, but a large payout alone does not demonstrate upset value. Purdue +28 (-112) likewise needs more support than the possibility of competitive offensive possessions.

At over 57.5 (-110) and under 57.5 (-110), Purdue’s scoring and defensive struggles pull against Notre Dame’s low yardage allowance. There is no sufficiently supported total projection to resolve that tension. Leave the winner and score unselected, with low confidence in any actionable betting edge.

ConfidenceSlight lean
SportsJaw pick

Pass

Sources

  • AOL / Indianapolis StarPurdue football schedule vs. Notre Dame: Kickoff, where to watch, tickets, injuries
  • Irish Sports DailyNotre Dame Football Depth Chart | Purdue Week
  • BetMGMNotre Dame vs. Purdue Opening Odds for Week 4

SportsJaw Fighting Irish vs Boilermakers game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Fighting Irish vs Boilermakers matchups or learn how our predictions work.

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