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NCAAF MatchupsSat 3:30 PM ET
Boise St.
Broncos
2-1
versus
Western Michigan
Broncos
2-1
NCAAF · BOISE at W.MICH

Your Picks on Boise St. vs Western Michigan

Picks close 15 minutes before game time (ET)
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Moneyline
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Boise St. Broncos vs Western Michigan Broncos Predictions

Game time: September 26, 2026 at 3:30 PM ET

Venue: Waldo Stadium — Kalamazoo, MI

Article updated Sep 22, 2:36 AM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

Both teams arrive at 2-1 after wins featuring productive rushing attacks. Boise State’s late surge and Western Michigan’s timely stops make an interesting comparison, but the betting call is Pass.

Matchup overview

The strongest angle for this Sept. 26, 2026 college football matchup is the meeting of two rushing attacks coming off productive games. Boise State beat South Dakota 38-24 behind two 100-yard rushers. Western Michigan defeated Rice 28-21 with contributions from its backs and quarterback, plus a touchdown possession lasting more than eight minutes.

Those performances offer each team a plausible route to victory. They provide less certainty about the margin: Boise State needed a fourth-quarter breakthrough, while Western Michigan finished with only a three-yard advantage in total offense.

At a glance

Game time: Sept. 26, 2026, at 1:30 p.m. Mountain Time, equivalent to 3:30 p.m. Eastern.

Matchup: Boise St. Broncos at Western Michigan Broncos, 2026 college football season.

Broadcast: ESPN2.

Records: Both teams are 2-1. On Sept. 19, Boise State beat South Dakota 38-24 and Western Michigan beat Rice 28-21.

SportsJaw moneyline: Boise State -275; Western Michigan +225.

SportsJaw spread: Boise State -7 (-115); Western Michigan +7 (-105). A seven-point Boise State win would push either spread selection rather than produce a winning wager. Moneyline wagers depend on the outright result, regardless of margin.

Boise St. Broncos outlook

Dylan Riley supplied the decisive rushing plays against South Dakota, finishing with 198 yards and two touchdowns. His 2-yard score with 6:25 remaining broke a fourth-quarter tie, and he later added an 83-yard touchdown. Sire Gaines contributed another 102 rushing yards. Their combined 300 yards show how much production Boise State received from both backs in that particular game.

The timing matters as much as the final totals. Boise State eventually won by 14, but the game remained tied deep into the fourth quarter. Riley demonstrated the ability to change the margin quickly. The earlier tie also cautions against reading the final score as evidence that Boise State controlled the entire contest.

Maddux Madsen completed 22 of 31 passes for 208 yards and two touchdowns. Rasean Jones accounted for eight catches, 95 yards and one touchdown. Those contributions give Western Michigan more to consider than the rushing totals alone. If Boise State can again pair productive carries with useful passing gains, its offense would have multiple ways to sustain possessions.

Defensively, Boise State allowed South Dakota only 36 rushing yards. Travis Anderson intercepted two passes, including the interception that sealed the result. The rushing defense is especially relevant against a Western Michigan team that received ground production from three players against Rice. Still, stopping South Dakota does not establish how Boise State will handle a different opponent. The performance supports interest in that matchup, without settling it.

Western Michigan Broncos outlook

Western Michigan’s victory over Rice combined rushing production with defensive stops. Jalen Buckley carried 13 times for a season-high 117 yards and a touchdown. His 66-yard run helped set up Broc Lowry’s 6-yard first-quarter touchdown run. Lolo Mataele added 62 yards and a touchdown on 11 carries, giving the offense another productive rushing contributor.

Lowry also contributed in both phases. He completed 14 of 20 passes for 116 yards and a touchdown, while rushing for 39 yards and another score. His 34-yard touchdown throw to Aveion Chenault produced Chenault’s longest career reception. That play supplied a valuable gain through the air, although one completion does not establish a consistently explosive passing attack.

The offense also demonstrated patience. A third-quarter possession covered 72 yards in 16 plays, consumed 8:27 and finished with Buckley’s 1-yard touchdown. Repeating that kind of possession could reduce Boise State’s opportunities to respond. Its value depends on finishing drives, however: using time without producing points would offer much less protection against a quick scoring answer.

Western Michigan held Rice to one conversion in 10 third-down attempts, despite allowing 330 total yards and gaining 333 itself. Ahmed Tounkara contributed a late sack and a fourth-down pass breakup. Those plays help explain the win without suggesting a large overall yardage advantage. Against Boise State, another strong performance on critical downs would be useful, but the Rice result alone cannot establish that Western Michigan will reproduce it.

Key matchup factors

Western Michigan’s earlier result adds context beyond the Rice game. Its official opening defeat was 13-12 at Michigan after a late Hail Mary. That narrow loss is relevant to assessing its competitiveness, but Western Michigan remains 2-1. Spencer Danielson’s favorable assessment of the team does not change the result or create an undefeated record.

Danielson also praised Western Michigan’s defense after studying its Michigan performance. That is an opposing coach’s assessment, separate from a statistical forecast. It adds a reason to take the defense seriously, while providing no numerical basis for a win probability or a betting confidence level.

The pricing creates different decisions. Boise State must win by more than seven to cover -7 (-115), while Western Michigan +7 (-105) can cover in a loss by fewer than seven. The SportsJaw total is 48.5, with over 48.5 (-110) and under 48.5 (-110). Recent scoring results alone do not establish which side of that total offers value.

Prediction

Pass at the supplied SportsJaw prices. Boise State’s case rests on its latest combination of rushing production, passing contributions and run defense. The strongest argument for backing the favorite is that success in several areas could provide alternatives if Western Michigan takes away one part of the offense.

The counterargument is substantial. Western Michigan followed a one-point loss at Michigan with a Rice performance featuring effective third-down defense and a lengthy scoring possession. Boise State, meanwhile, was tied in the fourth quarter before pulling away from South Dakota. Those facts leave meaningful uncertainty about the road favorite’s ability to create the required separation.

Boise State -275 moneyline requires a stronger assessment of its winning chances than these results justify. Neither Boise State -7 (-115) nor Western Michigan +7 (-105) has a sufficiently established edge here, and Western Michigan +225 moneyline is not compelling merely because an upset is conceivable. There is also no clear basis for choosing over or under 48.5 (-110). Leave the winner and projected score unset.

ConfidenceSlight lean
SportsJaw pick

Pass

Sources

  • Boise State AthleticsDominant Fourth Quarter Pushes Broncos Past Coyotes
  • Western Michigan University AthleticsBroncos Ground Owls, 28-21
  • Awful AnnouncingBoise State coach Spencer Danielson says Western Michigan is ‘undefeated’ ahead of matchup

SportsJaw Broncos vs Broncos game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Broncos vs Broncos matchups or learn how our predictions work.

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