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NCAAF MatchupsSat 2:00 PM ET
South Dakota
Coyotes
3-1
versus
Youngstown St.
Penguins
2-2
NCAAF · SDKOT at YOUNG

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13-11 record · 54.17% wins
Last 30 days · NCAAF

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South Dakota Coyotes vs Youngstown St. Penguins Predictions

Game time: September 26, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET

Article updated Sep 23, 4:05 AM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

South Dakota's big-play offense makes the Coyotes interesting at even money, but Youngstown State's experienced quarterback leaves little room for confidence.

Matchup overview

South Dakota brings the strongest season-long offensive indicator into this September 26, 2026 college football matchup: 23 plays covering at least 20 yards, including 12 touchdowns. That production supports a slight lean toward the visiting Coyotes, although Youngstown State offers a substantial challenge behind quarterback Beau Brungard. Both teams arrive after road losses, South Dakota at Boise State and Youngstown State at South Dakota State. The Coyotes open their Missouri Valley Football Conference schedule, while the Penguins seek their first conference victory.

At a glance

Kickoff: Saturday, September 26, 2026, at 1 p.m. Central / 2 p.m. Eastern.

Venue: Stambaugh Stadium, Youngstown, Ohio.

Broadcast: ESPN+ and Midco Sports 2.

Records: South Dakota 3-1, 0-0 MVFC; Youngstown State 2-2, 0-1 MVFC.

Quarterbacks: South Dakota's Austyn Modrzewski; Youngstown State's Beau Brungard, scheduled for his 29th consecutive start.

SportsJaw moneylines: South Dakota +100; Youngstown State -128. Spreads: South Dakota +1.5 (-106); Youngstown State -1.5 (-120). Total: over 61.5 (-113); under 61.5 (-113).

South Dakota Coyotes outlook

South Dakota's 38-24 defeat at Boise State ended a 3-0 start, but the final margin misses how competitive the game remained. The teams were tied 24-24 with just over 10 minutes left. The Coyotes subsequently reached a red-zone opportunity before turning the ball over on downs with 1:44 remaining. That sequence supports their ability to stay involved on the road, while also illustrating the difference between generating an opportunity and finishing it.

Modrzewski has thrown multiple touchdown passes in each of his first four starts. His 14 passing touchdowns lead the MVFC and FCS, and his 193.2 quarterback rating ranked third in FCS after Boise State. Receiver Tennel Bryant averages 36.4 yards per catch and has three touchdowns. Tysen Boze supplied a 59-yard touchdown reception at Boise State. Those individual contributions reinforce the team's explosive-play numbers without establishing how often similar chances will appear against Youngstown State.

The main offensive concern is balance. Boise State held the Coyotes to 36 rushing yards and intercepted Modrzewski twice. Charles Pierre Jr. has surpassed 2,000 career rushing yards, but his career production does not erase that recent difficulty. If the passing game has to carry another close contest, protecting possession becomes especially important.

Linebacker Wade Abrams has 38 tackles, including 14 at Boise State, and leads the MVFC at 9.5 per game. John Starman leads South Dakota with 3.5 tackles for loss and 2.5 sacks. The defense also delivered two fourth-down stops last week, useful contributions despite the eventual defeat.

Youngstown St. Penguins outlook

Youngstown State's 27-20 loss at then-No. 2 South Dakota State offers a credible counterweight to South Dakota's offensive case. Brungard completed 27 of 35 passes for 292 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. The Penguins produced 349 total yards, showing they could move the ball against that opponent, although the seven-point defeat still left them 0-1 in conference play.

Brungard's experience is the clearest distinction between the quarterbacks. Entering his scheduled 29th consecutive start, he has career totals of 6,540 passing yards and 50 passing touchdowns, alongside 2,886 rushing yards and 50 rushing touchdowns. Those rushing accomplishments give South Dakota another dimension to consider. They should not obscure his latest output, however: 32 yards on 13 attempts as Youngstown State managed only 57 rushing yards overall.

Lynn Wyche-El has caught a touchdown in four consecutive games, including an 11-yard score last week. Alex McDonald also caught an 11-yard touchdown against South Dakota State. Jaden Gilbert contributes in both phases, with 149 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 23 carries, plus 13 catches for 82 yards and two scores this season. That distribution gives Brungard several demonstrated scoring options.

Defensively, Cam Smith recorded 15 tackles last week, while Roderick Owens Jr. and Graydon Rollins had nine apiece. A forced fumble near the goal line prevented a South Dakota State score and preceded a 94-yard touchdown drive. The broader experience picture is mixed: despite Brungard's continuity, 15 Penguins have made their first career starts through four games. That is a reason for caution, not proof of a specific weakness.

Key matchup factors

The kicking comparison matters when the spread is only 1.5 points. South Dakota's Bohdie Ing has made all five field-goal attempts, including the career-long 43-yarder that tied Boise State in the fourth quarter. Youngstown State's Andrew Lastovka converted from 39 and 34 yards against South Dakota State. Both have recent successful kicks to point to, although those results do not establish an advantage in a future pressure situation.

Series history pulls in different directions. Youngstown State leads 8-4 overall and 6-1 at home, but South Dakota won the 2024 meeting in Youngstown, 27-17, and seeks a third consecutive series victory. The older home results deserve limited weight when judging this season's personnel. South Dakota's 2-5 record in MVFC road openers similarly provides context rather than a forecast.

The prices also create a concrete choice. South Dakota +100 moneyline requires a win; +1.5 (-106) additionally covers a one-point defeat, at a less favorable payout. Neither price establishes an independent assessment of the Coyotes' chances. The decision rests on whether their offensive case justifies accepting the outright-win requirement.

Prediction

The lean is South Dakota Coyotes moneyline (+100), with low confidence. The combination of repeated touchdown production from Modrzewski and scoring plays across multiple receivers makes a narrow road win plausible. Even money means a winning wager earns the amount risked. It does not offer a cushion against defeat, and the evidence supports only a slight preference rather than a clearly demonstrated pricing error.

Youngstown State's strongest response is Brungard's efficient passing performance against South Dakota State, supported by his extensive starting experience. The Penguins can challenge this pick without relying on historical home results. South Dakota's limited rushing output and two interceptions at Boise State further weaken any argument for a comfortable Coyotes victory.

The projection is South Dakota 31, Youngstown State 28. That is a close-game estimate, not an expectation supported by a precise scoring model. Its 59 combined points fall below 61.5, but the available offensive and defensive comparisons do not justify a separate under wager. Keep the recommendation confined to the South Dakota moneyline and treat the margin for error as small.

Projected score

SDKOT31

YOUNG28

ConfidenceSlight lean
Projected winner South Dakota Coyotes
SportsJaw pick

South Dakota Coyotes moneyline (+100)

Sources

  • University of South Dakota AthleticsPREVIEW: South Dakota Opens MVFC Play with a Top-15 Youngstown State
  • Youngstown State University AthleticsPenguins Return Home To Take On South Dakota
  • University of South Dakota AthleticsCoyotes Show Fight in Road Clash at Boise State

SportsJaw Coyotes vs Penguins game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Coyotes vs Penguins matchups or learn how our predictions work.

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