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NCAAF MatchupsSat 4:00 PM ET
Lamar Cardinals logo
Lamar
Cardinals
2-1
versus
Nicholls St. Colonels logo
Nicholls St.
Colonels
2-2
NCAAF · LAMAR at NICHOLL

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JackCohen

18-11 record · 62.07% wins
Last 30 days · NCAAF

$500 pick on the spread

Lamar Cardinals vs Nicholls St. Colonels Predictions September 26, 2026

Game time: September 26, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET

Article updated Sep 23, 2:30 AM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

Lamar brings a national ranking into this September 26 matchup. Nicholls has documented early-season playmakers, but the available comparison supports a Pass at the supplied SportsJaw prices.

Matchup overview

Lamar's national ranking and Nicholls' early turnover production frame this 2026 college football matchup. The September 21 AFCA FCS Coaches Poll placed the Cardinals No. 15 and identified Nicholls as their September 26 opponent. Nicholls had generated 10 takeaways through its first three games, offering a concrete reason to examine the underdog beyond the price. Those credentials describe different aspects of the teams, however. A poll position and an early takeaway total do not establish how their offenses and defenses compare, leaving a substantial hurdle to recommending either side.

At a glance

Game: Lamar Cardinals vs. Nicholls St. Colonels, September 26, 2026, college football.

Lamar: No. 15 in the September 21 AFCA FCS Coaches Poll, with a 2-1 record and 296 poll points. The poll listed the Cardinals as idle in Week 3.

Nicholls: Was 2-1 entering September 19 after opening Southland play with a 31-28 victory over UTRGV.

SportsJaw moneyline: Lamar -390; Nicholls +280.

SportsJaw spread: Lamar -8.5 (-113); Nicholls +8.5 (-113).

SportsJaw total: Over 46.5 (-113); under 46.5 (-113).

Lamar Cardinals outlook

Lamar's strongest documented credential is its standing in the September 21 coaches poll. The Cardinals held the No. 15 position with 296 points, providing a dated measure of recognition among the poll's voters. Their listed 2-1 record supplies another basic season marker. Neither figure identifies the particular offensive or defensive strength that might decide this game.

That distinction matters when considering the two ways to back Lamar. At -390 moneyline, the Cardinals only need to win, but the price requires a strong assessment of their chances to justify the risk. At -8.5 (-113), a victory alone is insufficient: Lamar must win by at least nine points. The ranking does not measure an expected winning margin.

The available Lamar information does not include individual game results, scoring production or player statistics. Consequently, there is no documented basis for identifying a quarterback advantage, a productive rushing attack or a defense equipped to limit Nicholls' passing game. Calling any of those a Cardinals strength would go beyond what the current reporting establishes.

The Week 3 idle listing also deserves a narrow interpretation. It confirms a break in Lamar's schedule, but it does not establish improved health, additional player availability or a preparation advantage. Those would require separate information. The Cardinals have a recognizable national credential, yet the details needed to translate that credential into a moneyline valuation or a spread recommendation remain missing.

Nicholls St. Colonels outlook

Nicholls' September 18 preview provides a more detailed picture, although its statistics precede the scheduled September 19 game at Sam Houston. The Colonels were then 2-1, having begun Southland play with a 31-28 win over UTRGV. They established a 14-0 lead but still needed an onside-kick recovery after UTRGV scored with one minute remaining to secure possession late.

Senior quarterback Ean Rodrigue threw a career-high four touchdown passes in that victory. Senior receiver Jackson Dufrene accounted for three receiving touchdowns while gaining 100 yards on five catches. That performance identifies an actual productive passing connection. It does not establish how consistently Nicholls can reproduce that output, particularly without a corresponding profile of Lamar's pass defense.

The defense contributed three takeaways against UTRGV. Senior linebacker Kennon Loftin recorded 12 tackles and an interception, bringing his three-game tackle total to a team-leading 24, or 8.0 per game. Fifth-year defensive back Jhamal Shelby Jr. had four pass breakups and one interception through the same opening stretch.

Nicholls reported 10 takeaways through three games, third-most in the FCS, alongside an average of 3.33 penalties per game that the school reported as first in the subdivision. Those figures support early strengths in turnover creation and penalty frequency. The close finish against UTRGV also shows that an early lead and multiple takeaways did not produce a comfortable margin. This is a useful early snapshot, rather than a complete assessment of Nicholls entering September 26.

Key matchup factors

The reporting dates materially limit the comparison. Lamar's record and ranking come from September 21, while Nicholls' detailed statistical profile ends before its September 19 game. Treating those records as equally current would obscure that difference. The available information does not establish Nicholls' result from that intervening game, so the Colonels' earlier 2-1 record cannot be presented as their confirmed record entering this matchup.

Turnovers also require an opponent-specific comparison. Nicholls' takeaway production is documented, but Lamar's ball-security record is not. There is therefore no basis for assuming that the Colonels will continue producing takeaways at their early rate against this opponent.

The prices offer separate decisions, rather than one general judgment about the favorite. Nicholls could cover +8.5 without winning, while Lamar could win without covering -8.5. Likewise, the 46.5 total requires an assessment of combined scoring. Neither a coaches-poll ranking nor a takeaway count provides that assessment. Poll points are a ranking measure, not a win probability, public betting percentage or SportsJaw user vote.

Prediction

Pass. Lamar -390 moneyline and -8.5 (-113) spread each require more support than a national ranking and a 2-1 record provide. The ranking is relevant context, but there is no sufficiently detailed comparison to establish that either price offers value. A projected score would introduce precision that the available performance information cannot support.

The strongest argument for taking a position is Nicholls' combination of passing production against UTRGV, early takeaways and low penalty frequency. Those are tangible achievements that warrant consideration when evaluating Nicholls +8.5 (-113). The counterargument is substantial: those numbers precede another scheduled game, and Lamar's corresponding strengths and weaknesses are not documented. That prevents converting an interesting underdog profile into a supported wager.

Nicholls +280 moneyline needs its own case for an outright victory, which is also absent. Over 46.5 (-113) and under 46.5 (-113) lack a supported combined-scoring comparison. With no established value at the exact supplied prices, the final recommendation is Pass, with no selected winner or projected score.

ConfidenceSlight lean
SportsJaw pick

Pass

Sources

  • Nicholls State University AthleticsColonels and Kats Square Off in Huntsville
  • UTRGV AthleticsFootball Receiving Votes in AFCA FCS Coaches Poll - Week 3

SportsJaw Cardinals vs Colonels game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Cardinals vs Colonels matchups or learn how our predictions work.

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