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NCAAF MatchupsSat 3:30 PM ET
Utah Running Utes logo
Utah
Running Utes
3-0
versus
Iowa St. Cyclones logo
Iowa St.
Cyclones
2-1
NCAAF · UTAH at IOWAST

Your Picks on Utah vs Iowa St.

Picks close 15 minutes before game time (ET)
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Moneyline
Total

Utah vs Iowa St. consensus picks

UTAH25%
75%IOWAST

Utah Running Utes vs Iowa St. Cyclones Predictions September 26, 2026

Game time: September 26, 2026 at 3:30 PM ET

Venue: Jack Trice Stadium — Ames, IA

Article updated Sep 25, 12:22 PM EDT

By SportsJaw Editorial Team

Utah will beat Iowa State, 27-20, with Devon Dampier’s efficient passing giving the Utes the strongest offensive advantage. Both teams have defended the run well, making Utah’s ability to generate offense through the air particularly valuable. Iowa State’s defense keeps the projected margin close, but neither the supplied eight-point spread nor the 47.5 total offers a strong enough edge. The official recommendation is Pass.

Utah Running Utes vs Iowa St. Cyclones prediction and best bet

Utah gets the winner selection because its offensive production gives it more room to adapt if the running game stalls. The Utes average 518.0 yards per game, compared with Iowa State’s 355.0, and Dampier has completed 72 percent of his passes. Against a Cyclones defense allowing only 83.3 rushing yards per game, that passing efficiency is central to the forecast.

The betting decision is less clear. Iowa State’s defense makes taking eight points tempting, but Utah has its own answer to the Cyclones’ rushing attack. A projected seven-point margin leaves little separation from the spread. Pass is the best betting decision, with Utah the pick to win.

Odds, game time and how to watch

Game: Saturday, September 26, 2026, at 2:30 p.m. Central. This is a 2026 college football matchup.

Venue: MidAmerican Energy Field at Jack Trice Stadium, Ames, Iowa. Broadcast: FOX.

Records: Utah 3-0; Iowa State 2-1. This is Utah’s first road game and Big 12 opener.

SportsJaw spread: Utah -8 (-110); Iowa State +8 (-110). Moneyline: Utah -335; Iowa State +270.

SportsJaw total: Over 47.5 (-115); Under 47.5 (-105).

Weather context: Utah coach Morgan Scalley anticipated rain in his Monday comments; that was his expectation, not a confirmed game-day forecast.

Utah Running Utes outlook

Utah’s scoring has been consistent across the opening three games: 66, 43 and 33 points. Those results extend its streak of scoring at least 30 to nine games dating to 2025. The current averages of 47.3 points and 518.0 total yards give the Utes the stronger offensive starting point for this comparison.

Dampier supplies the most persuasive reason to carry that advantage into Ames. He has 690 passing yards, seven passing touchdowns and a 178.5 passing-efficiency rating on 74 attempts. His 72 percent completion rate matters against a defense that could force Utah to find alternatives to its productive rushing attack.

He also has 114 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns. That additional threat could complicate Iowa State’s task, although quarterback mobility alone is no guarantee against a defense with strong results against the run. Utah averages 232.7 rushing yards per game overall.

Defensively, the Utes have allowed 24 points in three games and 75.0 rushing yards per game, down from 181.2 in 2025. Those are encouraging results against Iowa State’s offensive strengths. The limitation is the three-game sample: Utah now takes those numbers into its first road and conference assignment.

Iowa St. Cyclones outlook

Iowa State’s strongest case begins with its defense. The Cyclones allow 11.0 points and 226.3 total yards per game through three games. The school lists that yardage figure as 12th nationally. Those results make Iowa State a credible obstacle to Utah’s scoring streak, even with the Utes bringing the more productive offense.

The run defense is especially relevant. Iowa State has held each of its first three opponents below 100 rushing yards, extending that streak to four games dating to 2025. Its 83.3-yard rushing allowance suggests Utah may need Dampier’s passing to do more of the work. It also gives the Cyclones a plausible way to keep the margin manageable.

Offensively, Iowa State averages 35.3 points, 203.7 rushing yards and 355.0 total yards. Rushing therefore accounts for more than half its offensive yardage. That balance creates a direct challenge against Utah’s early run defense: the Cyclones must make their primary source of production work against a unit allowing 75.0 rushing yards per game.

Scalley noted that Iowa State’s loss at Iowa came by a field goal. That supplies context for the 2-1 record, but this forecast rests more heavily on whether the Cyclones can sustain offense against Utah.

Key matchup factors

Both defenses threaten something the opposing offense does well. If both rushing attacks struggle, Utah’s documented passing efficiency becomes the deciding factor in the forecast. Iowa State’s route to an upset is to limit that alternative while getting enough production from its own ground game.

As of September 25 at 16:14 UTC, the blended consensus favored Iowa State +8 (-110) at 63 percent, up 22 percentage points from the prior day. Over support stood at 86 percent, up five points. These are consensus preferences, not win probabilities or counts of observed bettors. Neither preference changes the central question: how much of the early offensive production survives this defensive matchup?

Utah Running Utes vs Iowa St. Cyclones spread prediction

Pass on Utah -8 (-110) and Iowa State +8 (-110). The Cyclones’ run defense supports a competitive game, but Utah’s defensive numbers are similarly strong. Taking the underdog requires confidence that Iowa State can score enough to stay close, and its rushing-heavy yardage distribution creates a meaningful concern.

The Utah 27, Iowa State 20 projection favors the Cyclones against the spread by only one point. That narrow cushion is too sensitive to a single scoring sequence to justify a wager from these three-game profiles. Utah remains the projected winner without becoming a spread recommendation.

Utah Running Utes vs Iowa St. Cyclones total prediction

Pass on Over 47.5 (-115) and Under 47.5 (-105). The offenses average 47.3 and 35.3 points, respectively, but the defenses allow just 8.0 and 11.0. Those opposing signals make a straight extrapolation from either set of averages unreliable.

The projected 47 points sit only half a point below the total. That is a forecast, not a sufficient Under edge. Strong consensus support for the Over also leaves the scoring question unanswered. At the supplied prices, neither direction has enough support to become the official wager.

Utah Running Utes vs Iowa St. Cyclones projected score

Game forecast: Utah Running Utes 27, Iowa St. Cyclones 20. Dampier’s accuracy and touchdown production give Utah the preferred offensive answer when rushing yards become difficult. The Utes’ own run defense adds a second reason to select them against an Iowa State offense deriving much of its yardage on the ground.

The strongest counterargument is Iowa State’s overall defensive performance, combined with Utah facing its first road test. Those factors could narrow or overturn the projected advantage. Confidence is low because both teams’ current profiles cover only three games. Utah is the winner selection; the spread and total are separate passes. The single official SportsJaw betting recommendation is Pass.

SportsJawGame Predictions
Predicted score

UTAH27

IOWAST20

Projected winner Utah Running UtesConfidenceSlight Lean — Iowa St. Cyclones
Pick on the Spread

Slight Lean — Iowa St. Cyclones +7.5

Editorial pick at publication: Pass (article line changed)

Pick on the Total

Slight Lean — Under 47.5

Editorial pick at publication: Pass on Over 47.5 (-115) and Under 47.5 (-105)

Sources

  • University of Utah AthleticsNo. 15 Utah Travels to Iowa State in Conference Opener
  • Iowa State AthleticsPRIMER: Iowa State vs. No. 15 Utah
  • University of Utah AthleticsMorgan Scalley Weekly Press Conference: Iowa State

SportsJaw Running Utes vs Cyclones game preview analysis and predictions incorporate current odds, injury reports, team statistics and market data. Information is updated regularly, but lines and player availability can change. Please confirm current information before wagering. View history of past Running Utes vs Cyclones matchups or learn how our predictions work.

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