New Mexico Lobos vs New Mexico St. Aggies Predictions September 26, 2026
New Mexico will beat New Mexico State 24-17, with its defense providing the strongest edge after holding Oklahoma to 299 total yards. The better wager is New Mexico State +11.5 (-110). The rested Aggies bring productive passing and a 52.5% third-down conversion rate, giving them a credible route to staying inside a spread that demands a decisive Lobos victory.
New Mexico Lobos vs New Mexico St. Aggies prediction and best bet
New Mexico's defense earns the winner selection; New Mexico State's offensive production earns the spread pick. The Lobos limited Oklahoma to 61 rushing yards in a 14-6 loss on September 19, intercepted two passes and recovered a special-teams fumble. A repeat of that defensive discipline would put considerable pressure on the Aggies to sustain drives.
New Mexico State +11.5 (-110) offers enough room for the Lobos to win without covering. The Aggies average 282.0 passing yards per game and enter after a bye. Their passing production and third-down success give them ways to answer defensive stops with possession. With New Mexico also needing to clean up execution mistakes, a double-digit road margin looks less convincing than a straight-up victory.
Odds, game time and how to watch
Kickoff: Saturday, September 26, 2026, at 1:30 p.m. Mountain Time.
Venue: Aggie Memorial Stadium, Las Cruces, New Mexico. Television: CBS Sports Network.
Records: New Mexico is 2-1 and 0-0 in Mountain West play. New Mexico State is 1-2 and 0-0 in Conference USA, returning from a bye.
SportsJaw spread: New Mexico -11.5 (-110); New Mexico State +11.5 (-110).
SportsJaw moneyline: New Mexico -460; New Mexico State +358.